Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 22, 2020

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Wed Nov 11 17:58:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is undoubtedly affected by my/538's vantage point, in that we're not pollsters but instead our job is to evaluate and forecast poll accuracy. From that standpoint, the "miss" this year of 3-4 points (for POTUS, maybe more for Congress) was fairly in line with expectations. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So... I've got a take on the polls up, which I think is a lot more equivocal than what you're seeing elsewhere. Here's the nut of it but it's pretty nuanced so you'll probably want to read the whole thing. https://t.co/NRvc31gsqZ https://t.co/8wJpb3uWDw — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A rough analogy: If I were a pollster, I wouldn't consider the miss to be "acceptable", in the same way that you were a parent, you might not consider a C+ grade to be acceptable from your 10th grader. But if he usually got a mix of B's and C's, it also wouldn't be *surprising*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020