Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked Nov. 22, 2020

Created

Wed Nov 11 18:02:43 +0000 2020

Likes

586

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A rough analogy: If I were a pollster, I wouldn't consider the miss to be "acceptable", in the same way that you were a parent, you might not consider a C+ grade to be acceptable from your 10th grader. But if he usually got a mix of B's and C's, it also wouldn't be *surprising*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is undoubtedly affected by my/538's vantage point, in that we're not pollsters but instead our job is to evaluate and forecast poll accuracy. From that standpoint, the "miss" this year of 3-4 points (for POTUS, maybe more for Congress) was fairly in line with expectations. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That analogy is a bit unfair to pollsters because polling is *really hard*, especially given the level of precision that people expect. There's no way around the fact that y'all will have to calibrate those expectations more to the empirical reality of how accurate polls are. https://t.co/4YMPOkjL8c — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020