Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 23, 2020

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Wed Nov 11 18:30:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave It's not clear that the error will be larger than 2016, FWIW, although probably. But again, I'm not a pollster. I'm someone who knows empirically that a) errors of this magnitude are fairly common and b) the direction of error is largely unpredictable. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait @AlecMacGillis I mean people were certainly quite joyous in NYC over the weekend. It felt like maybe the mood shifted on Monday here online but maybe not IRL. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave So sometimes you're going to miss in the same direction two cycle in a row, and sometimes it's going to bounce from once side to the other (i.e. low on Obama in 2012 then low on Trump in 2016). It's all pretty in line with the past behavior of polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020