Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 22, 2020

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Wed Nov 11 16:52:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing to keep in mind about Democrats' performance in the House is that the 2018 environment was *great* (D +9 nationally) for them and it was going to be hard to top that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd thought Biden's margin was tracking to +4.3 or so, but we may wind up with something more like a +4.6 (so rounding up to 5 points) if ballots are this lopsided for him in NY and IL. — PolitiTweet.org

Update...the 259k votes in Illinois added to NYT's tally since yesterday broke *83-15* for Biden, shifting statewid… https://t.co/nUVbsq6ems

Posted Nov. 11, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model was about ~5 seats more bearish on Democrats than the consensus in the House and I can't say I spent a ton of time examining our House forecast this year but I'm pretty sure that's why; there was high risk of some mean-reversion for Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2020