Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@HeerJeet I've never actually bet on a political betting market—my employer wouldn't like it and its unethical in various ways so I'm not sure how easy it is to get your money in/out. But in theory, yeah, it's free money. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep @TheStalwart @felixsalmon @MikeIsaac @pt Yeah, agree 100%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@felixsalmon @TheStalwart @zeynep @MikeIsaac @pt No, I surely wouldn't. I wouldn't really give a shit because I don't think it's ethically problematic and it would probably wind up increasing traffic, etc to the story if we played our cards right. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart @felixsalmon @zeynep @MikeIsaac @pt Yeah I think this theory is pretty bizarre. Unless there's an explicit agreement to the contrary I think the subject of a story has every right in the world to preemptively react to the story. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Lotta people clinging to bad takes from when it seemed like the pandemic was primarily an urban/high-density thing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattGlassman312 Lots of parallels to other COVID related stuff, where opinion is highly polarized between American liberals and conservatives on questions that are often 1) very challenging and 2) don't neatly line up with American liberalism or conservatism in any obvious philosophical way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Political betting markets still give Trump a >10% chance, both nationally and in several states where *results have been certified*. As I've said before, it's a bit alarming there are so many delusional people out there that the market equilibrium is this detached from reality. https://t.co/SiKXccMvE8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @daithaigilbert: Here’s how credible Sidney Powell’s #ReleaseTheKraken lawsuits are: In the first eight words she spells the word “dist… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Really part of a pattern of Biden performing well in the Northeast; you can almost see where the Northeast-Midwest divide runs through Pennsylvania. We're a big fan of using variables based on regions in our models as they're often surprisingly robust. https://t.co/FYjlvQlSQJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, what is their partner the University of Oxford doing here? I would have thought that of all the various vaccine candidates, this one would be most above board as far as applying academic levels of transparency. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not like this is even working as a play to persuade investors; AztraZeneca's stock has fallen a fair bit this week. https://t.co/3dmOu133OL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even from a purely cynical standpoint, what's the purpose of doing "science by press release"? People are going to find out the details eventually before FDA approval etc. so why not build trust by disclosing them up front? https://t.co/nDHmjh0uCQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although, I think there are some arguments to be had about whether Trump actually gives a crap about Republicans winning in Georgia, or even wants them to win at all. Maybe if they lose he thinks it'll prove how important it is for Republicans to have him on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not that it's likely to swing that many votes, but in theory you'd think Trump would want to wait until after the Georgia runoffs to start the PardonFest. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another way to look at this data: Tennessee is the 16th most populous state. So the 15 largest states in the US are either blue or purple. (Blue: CA, NY, IL, NJ, VA, WA, MA) (Purple: TX, FL, PA, OH, GA, NC, MI, AZ) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not seeing my parents for the holidays this year but we did make vacation plans for August and that felt good. It's gonna be a long winter and it may not be a bad idea to give yourselves some things to look forward to in the 2H of 2021 and beyond, post vaccines, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The point is not necessarily that the theory is wrong, but that the idea that some types of people are less likely to answer polls—or to answer them honestly—isn't new, exactly. It's one of the eternal, fundamental challenges of polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sorry, link: https://t.co/JYIbVNBRfi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "shy Trump voter" theory ... used to explain why Republicans weren't answering exit polls in 2004. https://t.co/IqALG3SyFi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias So the point is not necessarily that there aren't better strategies than Trumpism, but that it's hard for a Republican to point toward any recent counterexamples and convince people that it will work, in a way that Democrats largely can do for Obamaism. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Of course, you could interpret 2018 differently. Maybe it was mostly a backlash to attempts to repeal Obamacare. GOP turnout was quite high for a midterm, though so was Democratic turnout. They did save the Senate (and indeed gained seats). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think the problem is that we don't have a lot of examples of either way of how effective the first strategy is, electorally. The 2018 midterms featured a fair amount of "cultural" issues (i.e. the caravan) but Trump wasn't on the ballot and it didn't go well for the GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Trumpism-has-a-high-floor is a part of the story for sure. If you overperform in white rural states, you're going to hold the Senate a large majority of the time, even if you usually lose the presidency and are up-and-down in the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro That's plausible for sure. Although if true in some ways a bearish read for the GOP in the short term, since in 2022 they'll probably still be seen as the party of Trump (largely unpopular with swing voters) without having the turnout boost that Trump provides. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The GOP has lost a lot of elections, after all: before Trump this year, Romney, McCain, Dole, Bush 41. Bush 43 won twice, but was unpopular enough by the end (resulting in bad GOP years in 2006 and 2008) that it probably isn't easy to sell as having been electorally successful. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's the "mediocre at best" part that people will take to be provocative, I suppose. But it's the "not clear that the GOP's alternatives are better" part that may be more interesting: both the perception of it (does the GOP view moderation as a losing strategy?) and the reality. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Thesis that might be worth exploring: Trumpism isn't a terribly effective electoral strategy—its track record is mediocre at best, even considering how much overperforming with noncollege whites helps with the Senate etc—but it's not clear that the GOP's alternatives are better. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good read. Small household gatherings have always been a potential source of spread, but they haven't been a point of emphasis until recently. "Wait, now you can't even go over to friends/family's houses?" may be a hard message to sell vs. focusing on risk-reduction. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @chrislhayes Really? More than you expected from Loeffler, who embraced the endorsement of a QAnon promoter? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @chrislhayes 1) I don't know how far it got. Not only did they not breach the castle, I'm not sure they breached the moat. 2) This is debatable, obviously, but the fact that it was transparently ludicrous/doomed to fail could have been one reason that it didn't get more pushback. — PolitiTweet.org