Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 17, 2020

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Wed Nov 25 14:21:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think the problem is that we don't have a lot of examples of either way of how effective the first strategy is, electorally. The 2018 midterms featured a fair amount of "cultural" issues (i.e. the caravan) but Trump wasn't on the ballot and it didn't go well for the GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Trumpism-has-a-high-floor is a part of the story for sure. If you overperform in white rural states, you're going to hold the Senate a large majority of the time, even if you usually lose the presidency and are up-and-down in the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Of course, you could interpret 2018 differently. Maybe it was mostly a backlash to attempts to repeal Obamacare. GOP turnout was quite high for a midterm, though so was Democratic turnout. They did save the Senate (and indeed gained seats). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2020