Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 17, 2020

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Wed Nov 25 14:03:34 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Trumpism-has-a-high-floor is a part of the story for sure. If you overperform in white rural states, you're going to hold the Senate a large majority of the time, even if you usually lose the presidency and are up-and-down in the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro That's plausible for sure. Although if true in some ways a bearish read for the GOP in the short term, since in 2022 they'll probably still be seen as the party of Trump (largely unpopular with swing voters) without having the turnout boost that Trump provides. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think the problem is that we don't have a lot of examples of either way of how effective the first strategy is, electorally. The 2018 midterms featured a fair amount of "cultural" issues (i.e. the caravan) but Trump wasn't on the ballot and it didn't go well for the GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2020