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Showing page 139 of 910.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
OK, I have a weird question that's a little hard to phrase. To the extent vaccines are not 100% effective, is that because some individuals have better immune responses than others, or because some encounters with COVID are more likely to overcome the immune response than others? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Lots of data to suggest a fairly rapid increase in social activity in the US as cases begin to rise again. Some of… https://t.co/jHcRPZwOAA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@tbonier Yeah, I think ~10% are functionally impossible since the margin was so close, and another ~10% are sort of "trick questions" (e.g. an Orthodox precinct in Brooklyn) that you might be able to get with a LOT of practice but are otherwise pretty hard. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @sfrostenson: The push to restrict voting rights expands beyond just a few states. We catalogued 306 bills so far, some of which have be… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
https://t.co/P7RCc3Wk2B — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Heuristic: if a place has sidewalks, it votes Democratic. Otherwise, it votes Republican.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
New strategy of guessing Biden if at least one side of the street has sidewalks and Trump otherwise is batting 70% so far. https://t.co/ZTzpIhDc6b — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I thought I would be extremely good at this game but only batting around 62% so far. It's pretty hard. https://t.co/Yn1SCXDaEa — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ThisWeekABC: .@FiveThirtyEight's @NateSilver538 has more on whether GOP voting laws will make life harder for Democrats. https://t.co/T… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Kevin_Goldstein Hmm Kevin I don't want to mathsplain to the ghost of Branch Rickey but this is especially appalling given that professional baseball players are all on the far right tail of the distribution! Aaron Judge is probably a 105 power relative to the entire baseball-playing population! — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
For the sake of completeness I should mention that DC would rank fourth-lowest behind Georgia if it were a state. So it breaks the pattern a bit. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Lowest states in share of vaccine doses used. A lot of red states on this list suggesting that vaccine hesitancy among conservatives is an issue. Alabama Mississippi Georgia Arkansas Alaska Wyoming Tennessee Texas Missouri Kansas Oklahoma Louisiana https://t.co/MrxIwfTQKc — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@notdred @mattyglesias @kdrum Yeah ... I guess in some ways I'm less worried about the X% chance we get something as bad as COVID-19 and more worried about the Y% chance we get something considerably worse. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @kdrum I'm (obviously) way out of my depth here but I do wonder if the mRNA platforms are a game-changer. Maybe the peak is just as bad in COVID-26 but you can get to the end-stages in half the time. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @kdrum I mean the naive prior is that it was a 1-in-100 year pandemic so the chance of one over the next 10 years is ~10%. That seems reasonable I guess. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @kdrum I'd take the under. SARS and MERS weren't nearly as severe, there's some mathematical evidence to suggest we were "unlucky" that COVID didn't stay more contained, there'll be a lot more investment in early detection, and maybe vaccines provide some cross-immunity? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I kind of assume "returning to normal" is going to be easier than most adults think it will be, but harder for kids. If you're 40, then one year of doing things differently is competing with dozens of years of experience with the "old" normal. If you're 7, a year is an eternity. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
On Slow News Day, A Bloated Metaphor. https://t.co/sRH1BcSUJM — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@allahpundit Nah it's because the South is much better at wearing masks and social distancing. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @nataliemj10: A note from the podcast that I think is SUPER important: These ratings only apply to horserace polls, and do not address a… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@bryanjoiner Laura Ingalls Wilder? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @bluestein: “Why are you arresting her?” This Facebook Live video from @TWareStevens shows the moment authorities detained state Rep. Pa… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And ... one last piece (for now) of pollster-ratings-related content. A podcast! If the view I expressed in the article this morning struck you as a little too optimistic about the future of polling, this is shaded a bit more pessimistically FWIW. https://t.co/Ag3ddk5cZV — PolitiTweet.org
Galen Druke @galendruke
This... is... Model Talk! (kinda) The gold standard for polling has changed and @NateSilver538 and I talked all ab… https://t.co/K6D3syqpTw
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Vaccines should work well against the so-called New York variants, a preprint shows. This is the first study I've seen that looked directly at these variants. 🗽💪 — PolitiTweet.org
Mac n’ Chise 🧬🦠🧫 @sailorrooscout
Very promising news! A new study shows both the S477N and E484K versions of variant B.1.526 first detected in New Y… https://t.co/yRw37rxop3
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Two words: Giant. Magnets. https://t.co/56qxD5J9FA — PolitiTweet.org
Josh Barro @jbarro
Honestly a panel where a bunch of non-experts sit around a table and offer their theories about how to free the shi… https://t.co/3iJP1ophRN
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Nate_Cohn But mostly I mean in the sense of "if you were trying to predict how accurate polls will be in 2022 or 2024, how much should 2020 cause you to revise your prediction?" and I think the answer is not nearly as much as people think. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Nate_Cohn One defense of polling in 2020 is that even in a bad year, it was still quite useful in terms if correctly predicting Biden winning the primary, Biden winning the general election, and Democrats (eventually) winning Congress. People may expect an unrealistic level of precision. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Nate_Cohn A bit of both but mostly the latter. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Although, I do actually think you're likely to see errors be more correlated/systematic going forward, as I write in the story. Although I think that's more a function of the political environment than the polls per se. https://t.co/W6r5Xq3CrT — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I think the disagreement is actually different and a bit less exciting in some sense. It's mainly that I don't think there's solid statistical evidence for the premise that "polls are getting worse" as opposed to the null of "polling accuracy varies from cycle to cycle". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I'd boil down the disagreement to one fundamental thing: I think low systemic bias is far, far more important than… https://t.co/TFuB2viYbd
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Finally, here's how the most prolific pollsters fared in the general election. The best-performing pollster was AtlasIntel! Second was Trafalgar! Yeah, they incorrectly had Trump winning a few states, but they were close on the margins, and that's the better metric. https://t.co/yqfbjCequB — PolitiTweet.org
