Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 13, 2021

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Fri Mar 26 23:06:45 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @kdrum I mean the naive prior is that it was a 1-in-100 year pandemic so the chance of one over the next 10 years is ~10%. That seems reasonable I guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 26, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @kdrum I'd take the under. SARS and MERS weren't nearly as severe, there's some mathematical evidence to suggest we were "unlucky" that COVID didn't stay more contained, there'll be a lot more investment in early detection, and maybe vaccines provide some cross-immunity? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 26, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @kdrum I'm (obviously) way out of my depth here but I do wonder if the mRNA platforms are a game-changer. Maybe the peak is just as bad in COVID-26 but you can get to the end-stages in half the time. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 26, 2021