Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 13, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 14:40:33 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Finally, here's how the most prolific pollsters fared in the general election. The best-performing pollster was AtlasIntel! Second was Trafalgar! Yeah, they incorrectly had Trump winning a few states, but they were close on the margins, and that's the better metric. https://t.co/yqfbjCequB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something else worth mentioning—it's common sense but it shows up in the data—is that you should be mildly distrustful of pollsters without a track record. As a rule of thumb, it takes about 20 polls before you can have much confidence that what pollster does is working. https://t.co/xdRRsUEZOa — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think the disagreement is actually different and a bit less exciting in some sense. It's mainly that I don't think there's solid statistical evidence for the premise that "polls are getting worse" as opposed to the null of "polling accuracy varies from cycle to cycle". — PolitiTweet.org

I'd boil down the disagreement to one fundamental thing: I think low systemic bias is far, far more important than… https://t.co/TFuB2viYbd

Posted March 25, 2021