Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The second reason is maybe more interesting: the young voters who have voted are just a long more Democratic than the young voters who turned out at this stage of the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, those underlying demographic characteristics a reminder that absentee voting can work well to the GOP, as it has before. Indeed, early absentee requests in GA were quite Republican leaning, before the president decided he'd rather bash absentee voting than play to win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gtryan no they're not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden improved by 3.4 points over Clinton's performance in the state--a far larger improvement than his gains in any of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. He did so despite suffering big losses among the state's Latino voters--a group unrepresented in PA/MI/WI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ultimately, dwelling on this very legitimate question winds up obscuring that the conclusions are all but uncontested. It let's you say you think the analysis is 'wrong,' without being willing to say the conclusion is wrong--and in this case, actually stipulating it's right — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When it's all done, it'll be interesting to estimate how large the E.C.-P.V. gap would have been if Trump had maintained '16 levels of support among Latino voters. Doesn't seem crazy to think it would have been a 5 point gap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of the issues with this year's complaints of a 'rigged' election this year is that the case is so preposterous that it's clear there's nothing that could have been done to avoid it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden has more than 80 million votes--a 27% increase over Clinton's 63 million in 2016. Here's where he padded his tallies by more (green) or less (purple) than average https://t.co/gRuJfQr9XV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The tense is here is a relatively clear of an acknowledgment of the state of the evidence as they stand https://t.co/wK5RAnsPnQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden will still be the president come January, despite deliberate efforts to subvert the will of the electorate. But it's no longer so hard to imagine a slightly different world, where similar, subversive efforts threaten continuity of constitutional government — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More generally, I just don't think this is the same Georgia electorate as 2008. Democrats now enjoy a lot of strength at the top of the turnout index. There are nearly even numbers of recent Democratic and Republican primary voters. Lower turnout doesn't hurt like it used to — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since this wasn't clear, this implies that the 'new' white/black/hisp voters in ATL were somewhat more supportive of Trump than those who voted in 2016. That said, small differences; small samples. Not at all definitive https://t.co/KwiXfOlXjn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Times/Siena data doesn't really show any meaningful difference in vote choice between those with a 2016 or a 2020 record of voting. Here's the difference by group White -.4 Black -.8 Hispanic +.6 Asian +1.5 Other -1.4 Unknown -1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So while analysis of the national electorate won't be... final for a long time to come, I think we can pencil in that the final account will show that Black turnout ticked up, but not nearly as much as non-Black turnout, yielding a decline in the Black share of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@POLITICO_Steve it's hard to avoid thinking that it was just about the bad arizona call — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I continue to have no idea why Nevada is uncalled by others, but Fox calling it first won't do much to dispel the suspicion I've seen in my replies--that the non-call in NV was to protect Fox/AP from calling it based on a bad AZ call — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is kind of confusing https://t.co/47pW6WTDXX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well the final poll was Clinton+4, and in that survey 48% of voters had a college degree This poll is Biden+5, and 38% have a degree. Does that fix everything? Not necessarily. Does it help? Yes https://t.co/7hD0DMWqyT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this case, the problem's the methodology and you can see the symptoms in the crosstabs. But I don't think the problem is the crosstabs, in itself — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's an entirely separate way you can define it, too: based on a model of Hispanic ethncity, based on surnames/geography, or based on self-report. If Latino Decisions or other firms use that, and then screen on self-report after that, you get a *very* Dem group of Latino vts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A familiar move for Bloomberg, who made big, last minute plays in red target CDs https://t.co/vCI8NxhytY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pct. undecided in MI/NC Senate polling, by wave: June: 21% Early Oct.: 14% Late Oct. (partial data): 7% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AdamBassWCCS: NEW: @JoeBiden will be traveling to GEORGIA on Tuesday. More details to come. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To take a more recent example, we could probably tell that Obama had truly cataclysmic downside risk in WV in '08 that was negatively correlated in the country. The model didn't know it was any likelier or less likely than usual. But that possibility still has to remain — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Taniel @NickRiccardi @HotlineJosh idk about that; outstanding ballots are r+8 at this point. maybe those folks just don't vote by mail this year, and show up in person. but we're not going to know that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And these gains in Feb/March, at least as I recall them, weren't just about the Democratic primary. I mean, I remember people trying to dismiss it as differential non-response in favor of Trump because of impeachment, for example — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just for starters: we do push leaners, twice. If you don't know your presidential vote we ask 'if you had to decide today?' And then we ask a second 'do you lean'-type question. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if you look everywhere else, you've got mix of great-for-Biden-IA-like polls (Q in TX, Fox MI, Civiqs MN/NV) than murkier-PA-like number (Fox and LD in WI, DFP in MI, maybe the Ipsos AZ number), and some in between (like every FL poll) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if you look everywhere else, you've got more of great-for-Biden-IA-like polls (Q in TX, Fox MI, Civiqs MN/NV) than murkier-PA-like number (Fox and LD in WI, DFP in MI, maybe the Ipsos AZ number) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden ahead, though the WI/PA/OH polls all represent notable gains for Biden since their last poll https://t.co/ATHQyA9kgr — PolitiTweet.org