Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's another good night for Republicans in the race for the House, as tonight's ballots pad Republican leads in four critical districts -- Calif. 41, 45, Ariz. 1 and Ariz. 6 -- that would give the GOP four of the six additional districts they need to get to a majority — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CA47 -- the Katie Porter district. Her lead was cut in half https://t.co/mEqOdrF82j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Latest Orange County update is a strong one for the Republicans, putting CA45 awfully close to out of play and even making some Dem districts look more vulnerable than they had to this point https://t.co/iVFHp2tfwg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @pimaarizona: Update from Elections Director Constance Hargrove: The department counted just over 24,300 ballots today and will post the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Possible. Our Wisconsin study -- no, I haven't looked at any more -- certainly shows that the low incentive poll misses a relatively moderate group of low-turnout voters, who may be very relevant in high turnout presidential elections https://t.co/GlQ5yWa7C4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I will say, our polls in 10/19 look fantastic in retrospect. They're one of the main reasons I thought it was worth polling again in 2022 / why maybe 2020 was flukish https://t.co/d0MzlVdBaD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

🤷‍♂️ IDK. https://t.co/uhL5hQ4zxO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With the count almost done, the NYT/Siena poll appears to have had its best year yet: an average error of 1.7 pts with 0 bias (the national popular vote is estimated with imputation in uncontested races, who knows where that lands) https://t.co/kZD2tn9Zah — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @Taniel the needle can time travel — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It might still be days -- or longer -- until we get a final decision in the House, but a GOP majority is finally in sight https://t.co/RkAWKu9Dkc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In any given election cycle, there are 100s or 1000s of tweets or poll questions that you could pick out as the 'smart' one after the fact. But I think this dynamic from our final Senate polls is really the key thing that makes sense of what happened https://t.co/wUSZ3AyrMn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I'm not making a race call here -- we almost always take AP calls. I'm just trying to explain what thinking probably looks like — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One last way to put it. Imagine that, hypothetically, Lake got 65% of the vote tomorrow. What hard fact could I put forward to explain why I thought that was *impossible.* I don't think there is one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are also some good reasons to think -- and you should follow @Garrett_Archer and @Jamal___James on this stuff -- that the remaining Maricopa vote is pretty red and exurban. So that would shade me toward caution — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this particular case, I don't think this is in that tier of absolute certainty. Lake definitely needs to do better than what she's been doing, but not something nearly inconceivable. It's not even the ~ 25 pts better that Laxalt needed at this time last night, before Clark — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A projection means something very close to absolute certainty -- say, > 99.9% chance. There's a lot of room for something to be very likely (90%, 95%, even 99%!) and still not quite merit a race call. https://t.co/Ut6TsURVUQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JacobRubashkin i think we're in the hunt https://t.co/SHwSnsigfB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No projections in AZGOV, but make no mistake: Lake didn't get the tallies she wanted and probably needed out of Maricopa. It will presumably close further, but Lake doesn't have many batches left. Each time she falls short, her target in the outstanding vote gets higher. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In more good news for House Republicans tonight, Calvert continues to outperform in the post-election count in CA41 -- one of several GOP-leaning districts that the Democrats hope might represent their 218th seat https://t.co/CNOjx8FyfW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republican David Schweikert pulled into the lead in Arizona's First District in the latest results from Maricopa County. It's a district that's all but essential to the narrow Democratic path to retaining control of the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OR-5 goes to the Republicans, according to the AP, putting the GOP six districts from a majority https://t.co/ByFT0JH32k — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JacobRubashkin: Delgado jumping ship to be LG has kind of been memoryholed at this point since Pay Ryan won the NY19 special but add it… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Despite his #OHSEN loss, Tim Ryan (D) overperformed Biden by enough to help Dems win three key House races. Still, losing T… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Jamal___James: Partisan breakdown of 170,884 MariCo ballots. This is not perfect because there were no early vote map postings on 11/9.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Agreed. Wisconsin, too https://t.co/OsMLzdUJa8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the Dems don't turn around CA41 or surge elsewhere, I find myself wondering whether overseas/cured ballots in CO03 are their next best path? Just not many options if they can't breakthrough in one of these districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of the three, CA41 is the one where Dems are closest to their target (7 pts off), but there's the least evidence of a positive trendline. There, Dems are losing ground post election day, following a broader trend in white CDs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yesterday's CA ballots, yet again, were still good but not good enough for Dems. Lots of votes left, but Dems now need to do 7-12 pts better in the remaining vote in CA41/CA45/CA27 than they have done in the post-election count so far. That goes up every day it doesn't happen. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Senate is in the books. The House, however, is what "The Best and The Brightest" looked like after I put it in a washing machine (true story) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Catherine Cortez Masto pulls into the lead in Nevada, as the latest round of Clark County mail ballots goes for Ms. Cortez Masto by 61 to 36 percent margin -- giving her a margin of nearly 5,000 votes statewide. Could see some calls. — PolitiTweet.org