Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 28, 2023

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Mon Nov 14 02:31:20 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this particular case, I don't think this is in that tier of absolute certainty. Lake definitely needs to do better than what she's been doing, but not something nearly inconceivable. It's not even the ~ 25 pts better that Laxalt needed at this time last night, before Clark — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 14, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A projection means something very close to absolute certainty -- say, > 99.9% chance. There's a lot of room for something to be very likely (90%, 95%, even 99%!) and still not quite merit a race call. https://t.co/Ut6TsURVUQ — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Help me understand why you can’t project then lol

Posted Nov. 14, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are also some good reasons to think -- and you should follow @Garrett_Archer and @Jamal___James on this stuff -- that the remaining Maricopa vote is pretty red and exurban. So that would shade me toward caution — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 14, 2022