Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @NickRiccardi @EricLevitz @BenjySarlin what's a recent high-profile example of when Democrats have privileged working class economic interests over progressive demands, when those two groups are in conflict? environmentalists seem to pretty consistently win that fight, though there's a lot of selection bias there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Some interesting foreshadowing (not causal) of future electoral trends in the Keystone pipeline vote of '14: Dems voting for the pipeline: all three from rural Minnesota, one of the two eastern Iowa districts, every Dem from RGV, most Black Belt Dems, WV coal country https://t.co/wlEfpmsJpJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NPRinskeep: A White House official tells @scottdetrow that Biden’s 1045 announcement will be a ban on US imports of Russian oil. @NPR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/YHeKuJRsga https://t.co/EaKFjHguco — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jdawsey1: Trump mused to donors that we should take our F-22 planes, "put the Chinese flag on them and bomb the shit out" out of Russia… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Twitter is not real life — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Have you played wordle? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin wow someone needs to impose a no tweet zone over this account — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bencasselman: The fading of Omicron is very clear in this report. In January, a record 2.3% of workers reported being out sick. That wa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bencasselman: U.S. employers added 678k jobs in February, continuing a streak of strong job gains. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 pe… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JuliePace: KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Plant spokesman says Russian troops have begun shelling Europe's largest nuclear power station in Ukrai… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs i was admittedly thinking at the individual level, like adjusting support scores on the logit scale, with the deep south consisting of unpersuadable voters. i agree that county level swing is astonishingly linear--ie not the proportionate swing model implied by those '16 maps — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin @davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs (in contrast, there was a more distinct pattern among democrats, where democrats had retained the support of more racially resentful white working class northerners) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin @davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs (in contrast, there was a very distinct pattern among democrats, where democrats had retained the support of more racially resentful white working class northerners) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin @davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs it's been 6 years since i looked at this, but i think there's a lot less of a geographic pattern in white racial resentment among wwc/republicans than you'd guess — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin @davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs (and consequently might be likelier to swing Dem in '16 than their MS counterpart) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin @davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs but it would not be able to distinguish whether, say, a white republican in a 90% GOP, 10% col+ precinct in rural ND has less racial resentment than a seemingly similar precinct in Mississippi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin @davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs but it would not be able to distinguish whether, say, a white republican in a 90% GOP, 10% col+ precinct in rural ND has less racial resentment than one in a similar precinct in Mississippi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin @davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs it would directly account for urbanicity, since these models are fit at the individual level, have geographic predictors and are adjusted by precinct. it would only indirectly account for racial resentment to the extent it effects precinct vote, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs it's kind of the canonical issue, albeit a novel and extreme enough example of it that you probably wouldn't anticipate it unless you tried it yourself — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs one last point, with relevant to the logit: it's quite clear to me that census tract col+ had a lot of predictive value on vote flipping, beyond individual level educational attainment. helps explain GA v MS to some extent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs at the time, one of the best reasons to take the proportional view seriously was the polling. there were polls showing a close race in MS/SC, etc. in retrospect, seems likelier to be polling error/undecided voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs maybe it did to some extent or another--and yeah we could hypothesize about why that might be so. but i'm not entirely convinced there's a huge surprise in retrospect? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs so it's not at all obvious to me that the deep south defied what ought to have been our expectations based on some individual-level support model w a logit shift in '16 (as opposed to this proportional chart)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs but that's not usually how it seems to happen, presumably because truly persuadable voters seem to make up a smaller share of a party's voters in highly partisan areas in many cases — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs if this proportional model of persuasion was useful, you'd expect a party to always make its biggest inroads in the opposition's strongest territory. (ie: if you flip 10% of trump voters, you'd gain 10% in a place that's 100% trump but 5% in a 50% spot) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @lxeagle17 @SpecialPuppy1 @hodgesmr @mehdirhasan @ashe_cs as always, i think it's basically explained by the logit — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mikiebarb: Big and very exciting news from Team Daily. 🎉 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @carlquintanilla: (AFP) -- French President Emmanuel Macron believes "the worst is to come" in Ukraine after a 90-minute phone call with… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I talked to John Mearsheimer about the causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, what Putin will do next, an… — PolitiTweet.org