Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin it's part of the sample scheme too, so weighting had limited effect — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin though it does seem like we were probably helped by weighting on this. final national poll LV is 21% Dem primary in 20; 15% GOP primary in 20, which seems like it lines up with your figures above if I understand it. Dems in 20 primary: Biden 94-4 Dems no 20 primary: Biden 78-14 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin i think it's entirely plausible that this issue is deeply related to the problem. we've always weighted on primary vote history, but perhaps we fail to reach a representative group of less-engaged, non-primary voters, so weighting doesn't help — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile broadly despondent. haven't gotten around to publishing, but tldr: our polls look fantastic other than the one thing that matters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Times/Siena polls were often weighted on party x primary, but they were as bad as everyone else's polls. And one thing that seemed to help other polls--weighting on self-reported 2016 vote--would have pushed us even farther toward Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One challenge in the post-election polling autopsy world: there's a lot of idiosyncratic data. What works on one team's data may not work on another https://t.co/R3ttRYVyHN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Oz has steadily gained as Election Day votes get counted, but one interestingly McCormick still narrowly leads in the still-incomplete Election Day count — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

He's seen enough Madison Cawthorn https://t.co/K5nYAzEB9l — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Doesn't mean he can't pull it off, but he'll need these precincts to be among his very best of the night. And there are still five precincts from Henderson County, where he's losing the Election Day vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's one simple way to look at it: in Cawthorn's best county, he won the seven Election Day precincts by 406 votes. There are 24 precincts left, so matching that performance exactly would yield 1392 votes. He's down 1533 votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Madison Cawthorn's path to victory is starting to look awfully narrow. Most of the remaining precincts are on his turf--and he'll win them big--but based on the average votes per precinct so far, he would probably need to win them by >30 pts. He isn't doing that anywhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One not-entirely-surprising pattern so far this primary season: Trump-backed candidates faring best on Election Day; moderates faring well in the early vote. PA is an especially clear case right now. All of the GOP vote you see is mail. It's like looking at a different universe. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The first seven Election Day precincts offer some fragmentary but real hope for Madison Cawthorn, who still trails by 11 points in the count of mainly early votes. He's faring 14 points better in the Election Day vote than he did in the early vote from the same counties — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Madison Cawthorn trails by 11 points among early voters in the NC-11 primary, with nearly all counties reporting their early vote. Election Day votes, of course, may differ. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer lol oh good, carry on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer gross — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot an R+7 mean median gap doesn't mean much in a state like NY (note the initial dem map) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now all that said, I certainly agree with Dave on the point he's made, even if it's not the point I've emphasized: a map with a lot of competitive, if still Democratic-leaning, CDs could cost the Democrats a lot of seats in a 'red wave.' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My view is that we care most about the neutral year where House control is likely to be at stake. And the neutral year is where the map can shine for Dems, as it basically has the maximum number of Biden/Dem PVI seats--only one fewer than the outright Democratic gerrymander — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My view is that we care most about the neutral year where House control is likely to be at stake. And the neutral year is where the map can shine for Dems, as it basically has the maximum number of Dem PVI seats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A second framing question: do we mainly look at this in terms of 2022--a presumed GOP wave, where the GOP can reasonably hope to flip these Biden+6 to +10 CDs and could win a lot of seats--or in terms of 2024/a more neutral or even Dem year? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should also note that I suspect Dave agrees with me on this, as his own map featured seven Trump districts https://t.co/XIOBi7VpGg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So this map is pretty comparable to the final map proposed by the *Dem* commissioners, and generally better for Dems than the other proposals considered. The party didn't get what it wanted, but it probably came out ahead as a result of what it tried to pull off — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(and indeed, Names/Letters--two earlier proposals-- were worse for Dems per FiveThirtyEight) https://t.co/EMNRHr6aEu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One way to see it: look at the maps proposed by the defunct commission. Final GOP proposal: 7 Trump; 8 Trump-PVI, 9 GOP or competitive (<55% biden here) Final Dem: 5, 7, 9 This map: 5, 5, 10. Names/Letters were even worse for Dems IIRC than the final maps — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One important place to start: do we compare this new map to the previously enacted map? Or do we compare it the likely alternatives? My tweet compares it to the likely alternatives, and, yes, I do think this is about as good as Democrats might have hoped — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It seems like there are a few differences of either framing or opinion on this map, so let me walk through why I framed it the way that I did https://t.co/zpx4DVSVWw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The newly proposed New York map is pretty close to a best case outcome for Democrats, with just five Trump districts (v. four on the previously enacted map). Many competitive Biden-tilting CDs, but all voted more for Biden than nation as a whole. https://t.co/jPIDarNM8R — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jamalgreene: Reminder that much Electoral Count Act reform would insulate this kind of scheme from congressional review. No great answe… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @rp_griffin @RyanDEnos ideology is about a belief system, so if you don't want self-report then you have to ask about the beliefs at the core of various ideologies and evaluate how they affect whatever it is you care about — PolitiTweet.org