Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 7, 2022

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Wed May 18 01:39:24 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Madison Cawthorn's path to victory is starting to look awfully narrow. Most of the remaining precincts are on his turf--and he'll win them big--but based on the average votes per precinct so far, he would probably need to win them by >30 pts. He isn't doing that anywhere — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One not-entirely-surprising pattern so far this primary season: Trump-backed candidates faring best on Election Day; moderates faring well in the early vote. PA is an especially clear case right now. All of the GOP vote you see is mail. It's like looking at a different universe. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's one simple way to look at it: in Cawthorn's best county, he won the seven Election Day precincts by 406 votes. There are 24 precincts left, so matching that performance exactly would yield 1392 votes. He's down 1533 votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022