Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's another fun way to look at this. Basically everywhere with meaningful vote counts is better for Dems than '19 https://t.co/3qMkbRDaZ4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But at this point, the Dem overperformance is broad enough that it would definitely have to take some kind of weird reporting bias like this, where all the late results break one way, for Kelly to hold on. Obviously, reluctant to rule that out in these circumstances. https://t.co/NKG6pehy4D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the past, absentee ballots have sometimes been reported first or last, depending on county. And it seems there are at least some counties counting them together. You can get weird biases over time in the results, depending on method and difference btwn eday/abs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As it is though, I don't know how the explosion of mail voting effects the count here, and we do know that this can create biases in the sequence of election returns — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Signs that Dem-backed overperformance now extendsout of Milwaukee market to Oshkosh, MSP exurbs. If this were a normal election, and had no questions about the way this was being counted or weird turnouts, we'd say Kelly was the underdog at this point https://t.co/6xcSsTeado — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For those who'd prefer a scatterplot, here counties with greater than 25 pct of 'precincts' counted. Again, hard to know whether there are any potential reporting biases as a result of tabulation process etc, and most of these results are from the southeastern part of the state https://t.co/T2ch9Ozs6A — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's going to be hard to make sense of the Wisc. results, in part because I don't know how they're handling various vote methods by county, but *so far* basically everywhere that has more than 30 pct counted has been better for Dems than the nail-biter in '19. Still very early. https://t.co/aMUN38r4vY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It doesn't look like we'll have a map of the Supreme Court race, but hey I might make maps myself if I remain sufficiently interested — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been a week, but we're finally going to get results out of Wisconsin tonight, where there's a big Supreme Court race and Democratic primary voters cast ballots before Sanders left the race https://t.co/NzGN35CIaS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been a week, but we're finally getting results from Wisconsin tonight, where there's a big Supreme Court contest and Democratic primary voters cast ballots in while he was still in the race. https://t.co/NzGN35CIaS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The point when it's not obvious whether the race is closer in WI or TX is a very delicate moment when the game is at once extremely close to being over, and still extremely close https://t.co/IqmmVIMzVg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: https://t.co/fIu7REYC2Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@sebaker that's the LV gap + the difference between the electoral tipping points and the US — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth recently showed Republicans likeliest to say they were almost certain to vote. CNN has far more GOPers saying they're very enthusiastic about voting (not exactly the same as an LV screen fwiw). In our Oct polling, Trump picked up 1 point in a traditional screen — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Next, some wonder about whether turnout will actually help Democrats. There are some demographic shifts that help Dems in this respect, like greater strength among older and well-educated voters. Still, the few polls applying screens/asking LV-type questions suggest GOP will gain — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For me, there's too much variance in the quality of subnational non-live interview polling for me to toss it all together. That's not to say there aren't some ok or even good polls in this category https://t.co/FqCjlvKNtk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In these same polls, Biden leads 54-36 among women, v. 51-36 for Clinton; Trump leads 50-42 among men, v. 45-41 in '16 RV. polls. Difference is small enough that I wouldn't be too confident this is a real shift, though it could be — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few recurring questions: --what about NC/OH. Not enough live interview polls. Over longer term (prior post), NC divided. --and gender? I don't write about gender in pieces like this, since it doesn't vary by state. But it's possible that the gender gap has slightly widened — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jncar76 only 1 qualifying poll over the period, but longer look does not seem like biden+3 https://t.co/RKLDI1yP48 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jimsciutto: Breaking: A sailor who tested positive for COVID-19 on the USS Theodore Roosevelt has died of coronavirus, says Navy. Nearl… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The thing is... it hasn't really changed much. There are great reasons to think it really might change, eventually, but not yet https://t.co/GE1V50vUlg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I also like looking at a longer window for state polling, post-Dem impeachment inquiry on 9/26, for a bigger n. Here's what that looks like https://t.co/NaJJ8Io2KS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And one last out-take. I also like to look at state polls post-Pelosi decision to announce impeachment, since that's when we start getting state polls and we could use bigger N. The chart in the piece is post-1/1/20, since easier to grok. Anyway, here's post-9/26: https://t.co/nrdkQjhCHx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@payam_f there's less of a difference but the real issue is the small sample size. there might only be 20 Asian voters in a national poll, so you can't really break it out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@szorowitz so far, yes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another, easy to over-look factor in Biden's declining strength among nonwhite voters as a whole is the growing non-black share of nonwhite voters. Non-black nonwhite voters (Hisp/Asian, etc) tend to be more competitive than black voters and are a larger share of new registrants — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Hard to see it in recent national polls, which often don't breakdown by race. But it was there in our Times/Siena battleground polls in October, which had the same demographic story we see in national polls today https://t.co/FaRYXBCAqY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One point that didn't make the cut, due to lack of *recent* evidence: I think most of Biden's weakness among nonwhite voters, compared to Clinton, is among black voters and maybe especially young black voters. If so, harder to envision far higher black turnout, Dem GA/NC breakout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, the more conservative "Silent Generation" is getting old enough to start departing the electorate in greater numbers. Together, I suspect Clinton was quite competitive among voters who were over age 61 in '16 and alive today, and maybe even won them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The older voter thing interests me. It's hard to explain and maybe Biden+10 among over 65 will prove to be noise. It's partially compositional change: Trump led by just 2 pts among voters over age 61 (65 now), with Clinton ahead among voters age 61-65 in 2016 — PolitiTweet.org