Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: Let's stop with the BS... Voting by mail in large numbers (via absentee or all vote by mail) won't make a partisan dif… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject in terms of the effect of higher turnout, i've laid out my view in a lot of depth here. it's certainly consistentt with your assertion of a narrower RV/LV gap, but it also suggests the GOP maintains the edge https://t.co/RoIMrjcfOn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject it's not a solid assumption, but it is the likeliest result of LV screens, based on trump-era polling, trump-era turnout, and most prior elections. all sorts of things could change it, but i don't think these polls make a serious case that the baseline assumption is no RV/LV gap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject ultimately, i don't find the various enthusiasm questions to be very important. more compelling, for me: gop probably still did better among LVs than RVs in 18, despite low white working class turnout that'll probably rebound, and worse scores on enthusiasm than these polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject i don't really find any of that terribly significant and we can cherry pick all day (here's CNN) https://t.co/2OIMepL9v1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All of this could change--even a lot. There's an endless number of caveats in this environment. But that's the best guess on where we stand — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We are not used to both of these things being true. Frankly, it's hard to write about both of those things being true. But it is hard to reach a fundamentally different conclusion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The core tension right now is that... --Biden could lead among RVs in states worth 400 electoral votes, including 6+ points in the national popular vote --Trump could still be within 2 points in states worth 270 electoral votes, and quite possibly even less among likely voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @andrewbhall: We find that vbm has no discernible effects on either partisan turnout or election outcomes. It is remarkably neutral in i… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ArmandoNDK of course, as I've been written about before. but, it's still probably a point or more — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ArmandoNDK these polls assume those gains — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--Dems probably still underperform among LVs v. RVs (esp if you want to downweight Michigan), and particularly in the Sun Belt --In general, turnout is less of a variable than you think, though it can be decisive in any super close race and there's more variance in lower turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They're a little noisy. After all, they're individual state polls or unweighted subsamples of individual state polls. In particular, Michigan is a smaller N. But this kind of data--and it's the same in our huge compilation of data from 2018--teaches a few things — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that might be useful to see in thinking about turnout is the Biden/Trump horserace under different turnout scenarios in our Times/Siena polls from October, which remain pretty close to the state polling averages. https://t.co/JhO36YOtOU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think we definitely could see local, coronavirus response related effects, though I think it's likelier to be a result of the president's conduct and Michigan is the likeliest place to see it right now https://t.co/NgxDgrAdvD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As always, whether Democrats can get their breakthrough in Florida is the truly pivotal question here https://t.co/lMWvxyv9xa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten missed this — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: @Nate_Cohn FWIW, Biden was up 5 (or was it 6?) in the Marquette poll among LVs for yesterday's election. Greater than… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My guess: we'll see Biden+8 or whatever, and it'll be fairly clear that the Democrats won so decisively because of a lopsided turnout that they can't expect to repeat in a higher turnout without a one-sided primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One nice thing though is that we'll find out! We'll eventually get records of who voted, and match it up to our poll. In our WI poll 2019 poll, Trump was up 1 among 2016 voters, Biden was up 1 among 2018 voters and self-reported LVs, and 3 among RVs. We'll see about 4/20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Look, turnout was 50% higher than '18/19, despite a pandemic. There's a fairly straightforward explanation. And even if the Dem primary was irrelevant, the turnout was basically half of a midterm, let alone a presidential. Not high enough to be a relevant turnout indicator — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Hot take two: the results of a low turnout election held in the midst of a pandemic when one party has a presidential primary should not really move your view of Wisconsin, like at all. We have more polling there than any other state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Hot take: the best news for the Democrats in any battleground state is most certainly not Wisconsin, but Arizona, where Biden 's average lead in the polls so far this year is higher than PA, WI, MI https://t.co/yu9YQDJEsY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Some number of more reliable Republican voters decided to vote in the Democratic race, but it's consistent with the possibility that the primary was a factor in helping Democratic turnout too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

59.5% of presidential primary ballots were cast in the Democratic race in Wisconsin https://t.co/e6jWC2UB52 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's basically over, I know, but I do like the colors for this "non-partisan" but also totally partisan race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have a Supreme Court race map! https://t.co/jRUYqg4XUP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just wait. It will work its way up to the line https://t.co/EZAbVZU2iS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Apparently people still want these even though, frankly, only two things can be true: the race is over, these plots are useless. Even so: https://t.co/6AgrJvAiYf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I haven't been updating because I'm no longer interested in the race. At this point, the only thing to watch is whether counties that say they're at '100% reporting' wind up dropping heavily GOP votes. My view is that the reported turnout is too high for that to be realistic. — PolitiTweet.org