Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 21, 2020

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Tue Apr 14 13:55:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They're a little noisy. After all, they're individual state polls or unweighted subsamples of individual state polls. In particular, Michigan is a smaller N. But this kind of data--and it's the same in our huge compilation of data from 2018--teaches a few things — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that might be useful to see in thinking about turnout is the Biden/Trump horserace under different turnout scenarios in our Times/Siena polls from October, which remain pretty close to the state polling averages. https://t.co/JhO36YOtOU — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--Dems probably still underperform among LVs v. RVs (esp if you want to downweight Michigan), and particularly in the Sun Belt --In general, turnout is less of a variable than you think, though it can be decisive in any super close race and there's more variance in lower turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated