Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 21, 2020

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Tue Apr 14 19:15:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject it's not a solid assumption, but it is the likeliest result of LV screens, based on trump-era polling, trump-era turnout, and most prior elections. all sorts of things could change it, but i don't think these polls make a serious case that the baseline assumption is no RV/LV gap — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject ultimately, i don't find the various enthusiasm questions to be very important. more compelling, for me: gop probably still did better among LVs than RVs in 18, despite low white working class turnout that'll probably rebound, and worse scores on enthusiasm than these polls — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject in terms of the effect of higher turnout, i've laid out my view in a lot of depth here. it's certainly consistentt with your assertion of a narrower RV/LV gap, but it also suggests the GOP maintains the edge https://t.co/RoIMrjcfOn — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated