Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New Mexico? I mean, well, it's a more extreme NV, I suppose. Similarly low levels of educational attainment. Even more diverse. So I can see how the case for how it moves up the list v. 16, but it started so far down on the list that I just don't see the case in this environment — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nevada is interesting. It's the least educated state where Trump is on the air (<30 colplus, by our estimates) and there are plenty of signs that Hispanic voters are, at the least, a relative weakness for Biden and arguably an absolute one too. There's a real case here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Minnesota has the best educated RV pool (40% col+, by our estimates) of any state where Trump's on the air, and Clinton did win it. It's hard for me to see a world where it's worth being on the air in both OH and MN. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

MN, NV, NM are an interesting set of offensive targets for Trump, as they're really quite different https://t.co/KIb0OZhpaT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob it's an interesting question, though fwiw those AKSEN polls wound up ok after all the acrimony back in '14. seems like Lake had the house race in a decent spot in '18 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is, of course, possible we return to something like a Biden+6 race with RVs and these states slide back to irrelevance. Any reasonable analysis would allow for it. But at this point, there is also a real possibility of an expanded map in the presidential race and downballot — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, it is interesting to me that none of these states are considered 'likely trump' in the various ratings. No harm in caution, I suppose. But in this job, it's important to recognize when there's a plausible basis for a lasting and large shift in a race. COVID counts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alaska is one of several states--MT, KS, SC, AK, UT, maybe MO/IN--where it's fairly easy to imagine how the race could be Trump < 5 or so in this environment. I doubt they all are, to be clear, but I'd guess one or two are in that range and AK is one of the better candidates — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alaska polling is tough, but Trump+3 is about what I would expect in this national environment, particularly given the state's relatively elastic and independent voting streak — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @stevenmazie: 💥 BREAKING: TRUMP LOSES SUPREME COURT BATTLE WITH NEW YORK PROSECUTOR OVER HIS TAXES AND FINANCIAL RECORDS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Believe it or not, Bloomberg has received 7.5% of the votes cast in the Democratic primary so far, just behind Warren's 8% https://t.co/YMpbPwJFhN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DouthatNYT: Thirty second distillation of why Biden is likely to win, right here. https://t.co/Vk16sCX5Bp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@haleyjennyc @The_Kacer @erichc21 @PollsAndVotes @NateSilver538 indeed it is the only predominantly male educational group in the survey (presumably IRL too) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @erichc21 @PollsAndVotes @NateSilver538 usually it's 4 year, but quinnipiac is at least one example of a pollster that count… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @erichc21 @PollsAndVotes @NateSilver538 it does; 2-year grads are more conservative. here, white voters in our last wave of… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@erichc21 @PollsAndVotes @NateSilver538 it does; 2-year grads are more conservative. here, white voters in our last wave of battleground polls: postgrads: 63-29 BA only: 51-37 Associates degree: 37-51 Some college (form not specified), no degree: 41-46 Vocational/trade: 28-57 HS only or less: 33-54 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, of course, this group of Sanders '20 supporters is not the same as Sanders '16 supporters. Many Sanders '16 primary --> Trump '16 voters appeared to stick with the president — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Sanders voters who stayed home in 2016 back Biden 86 to 2. They're not super likely to vote (51% say almost certain), but OTOH that actually makes them likelier to vote than Biden supporters who stayed home in '16 (47%) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting bit of context here on the Sanders vote is to take a look at the subgroup of Sanders voters who said they voted in the 2016 general election: --They say they voted Clinton 80, Trump 6, Johnson 5, Stein 4, Write-in/other 2 --They now say Biden 88, Trump 5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@erichc21 @PollsAndVotes @NateSilver538 usually it's 4 year, but quinnipiac is at least one example of a pollster that counts 2 year degrees in their crosstab — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict fwiw i don't think this is comparable to the telephone surveys, esp w wwc, for many of the same reasons that exits aren't — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: Rasmussen Reports. Yes, that Rasmussen has Biden up by 10 pts. https://t.co/Y330SgCsjH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interestingly, Biden's margin on the left is unchanged since October (89-4 --> 89-3 w/Sanders and Warren supporters) so this does not seem like a fleeting product of Trump at his nadir — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interestingly, Biden's margin on the left is unchanged since October (89-4 --> 89-3 w/Sanders and Warren supporters) so this does not seem like a fleeting productive of Trump at his nadir — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Remarkably, Biden's vulnerability on the left (Sanders+Warren = 89-3) is indistinguishable from the challenge he faces from the center (Klobuchar+Buttigieg+HBloomberg = 87-6). Warren supporters even back Biden against Trump by a wider margin than Biden primary supporters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden emerges from a contested Democratic primary with no serious threat on his left flank, according to Times/Siena polling in the battlegrounds. Sanders supporters back him 87-4 Warren supporters back him 96-0 https://t.co/TrJFx5ue0r — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For now, all of these are kinda maybe-plausibly competitive in this national environment, and we'll just have to wait and see whether any of them break toward Dems (IN '08, for ex), or whether they all kinda hang back on the periphery (tho maybe close enough for a surprise poll) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's hard to predict where. The current Civiqs estimates--and I'd guess they're not great in small states--offers one picture that's at least worth considering, albeit with caution. Otherwise, we're guessing based on demographics and that's not easy. https://t.co/tACdHistYs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Those estimates added up to Trump approval at -10 among RVs. He's probably a net-5 points further back right now. So it's pretty likely that, today, the president's approval rating is underwater in several of those states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Last summer, we put out some estimates of where we thought Trump's approval rating stood in 11/18, based on the exits, CCES, votecast, and House results. Once you get past the standard battlegrounds, you reach TX/OH/GA. Not far behind is a less competitive bunch: AK/UT/SC/KS/MT https://t.co/T8deDNatKJ — PolitiTweet.org