Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a second question: how much uncertainty is there today v. 16? Here, FiveThirtyEight doesn't see much of a difference. TLDR: uncertain fundamentals cancels out fewer undecided voters. Is that right? IDK, and tbh they don't either (one might say that's the uncertainty) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So, for instance, the 538 polls plus estimate of PA/MI/FL on 8/26 in '16, v. today. Are they very different? No, not really. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some valid differences: --538 shifted from 'polls only' to 'polls plus' as default. polls plus in '16 was clinton 73.5% on 8/26 --polling and priors now support a Trump E.C. edge, not yet true in '16 --Biden penalized post DNC https://t.co/KNFyvgkIfw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Joe the Plumber, but for 2020 Twitter takes delivered in real life > https://t.co/7xosek8QeQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor whoa whoa whoa, these aren't hipsters we're talking about here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi @DeGolierThomas well of course, it's all an if. but given growth in the interior west, i don't see how anyone could be surprised if it turned out to be true by 2040 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi @DeGolierThomas if bozeman and missoula became as big as boise, and voted for clinton by 25, you've got a tied montana '16 race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I meant Missoula but Bozeman works too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

AK/MT have Vermont potential: destinations for outdoorsy liberals who want microbrews and biking trails, and the yuppie amenities of a college town. Some spots, like Bozeman, already have it down https://t.co/rvX3SEGenJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(MT and AK are #4 and #6 on Trump raw vote margin in '16, with MI (1), WI (2), PA (3), AZ (5) in between. It wouldn't take much! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've long semi-joked that Blue Montana and Blue Alaska, brimming with PNW/NoCal expats, will be the ultimate undoing of the GOP structural edge in the Senate https://t.co/Pvsg2tHSfu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Haley/Scott, the whole COVID sequence, various testimonials were at least intended to elicit a second look. How well that works or, arguably more importantly, whether they're really committed to it with advertisements, rest of convention, etc.? IDK. https://t.co/eGRdCOf30O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few people have asked me about this. Even if you get a 10 ppt turnout edge (say 60% turnout for supporters of cand x; 70 for cand y), cand y would still need to be > 46% of the major party vote among vote among RVs to reach 50% among LVs. https://t.co/jZRRve8RAw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway who knows whether that would have worked for Bush at the time. As it is today, their reliance on this kind of strategy is borne of a certain weakness. They don't think they have a clear vision for a more traditional strategy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In that hypothetical Trump '04 RNC, they bring on a couple of pro-choice Republicans like a KBH in prime time or something to assure the crowd that they're not religious radicals, they just fear that the left is going too far and destroying our institutions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over all, I thought the crime/fear of left argument was the most central part of the night. But that's more of a wedge issue. It'd be like an RNC '04 where they talked way more about gay marriage than terrorism, and occasionally mentioned that Kerry was *actually* an atheist — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After all, attitudes about Trump are pretty fixed--and it's a key part of how he won last time. But I can't summarize the attack this morning. It's not "flip flop." It's not "Bain." It's not "lock her up" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For instance, shoring up Trump on race may involve attacking Biden on the crime bill; 'fear of the left' may involve depicting Biden as a stealth radical socialist. There's tension there. Either way, they spent less time on Biden than I would have guessed. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That first element--shoring up the president on race and COVID--is not something we've seen much of before. It'll be interesting to see if they commit to this on later nights/in ads. The second part we've seen a lot of before, but they continue to struggle with the Biden aspect — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By this measure, night one was interesting? If I had to describe it, I'd say night one was: do what you can to shore up the president's standing, including on COVID and race relations (Haley/Scott); use crime/fear of the left to rev up the base and peel off some suburban swing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So they have lots they need to do! But part of the reason they haven't done these things may be because they can't or don't know how. So what am I watching for? A clear strategic vision for how they want to win this election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Heading into this convention, I don't think the Trump campaign had laid the groundwork for this style of reelection campaign. They haven't resolved on a clear attack on Biden. They haven't chosen a clear contrast on the most important issue. Their approval isn't at 47. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It works when you have... --A pretty good material on your opposition --A clear vision of your preferred most important issue, and a plausible pitch on it --You're already close (you've had a winning coalition and you just need to reinvigorate it w 47% ratings) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The last two reelection campaigns had a clear flight plan: --define the opposition early to setup a positive contrast on a key issue (flip flop : natsec :: bain : econ) --emphasize wedge issues to fire up your base and appeal to key vts --boost your ratings by a couple of points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm reminded of the scene in Apollo 13, when the flight director asks after the explosion: "let's look at this from the standpoint of status. what do we got on the spacecraft that's good?" At least on the numbers, they don't have many good answers to that question. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The DNC, to my mind, had one clear and simple task: do everything you can to increase Biden's favorability rating, and make more people feel *good* about Biden. The RNC's task is far less clear. They have a lot of work to do, but it's also not always clear what they can do — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@canadafortulsi maybe? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Out of luck! Only dead polls in 2020 https://t.co/IuZwqRd6O0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Kinda forgot about this, but it's odd that the USC folks put out a press release with their poll result and then never actually offered a standard report with like topline results, etc.? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as a few of you were interested in some book recommendations, this is basically the only book I've read on the period (though as I said, I'd like to read more) https://t.co/g4y69v4gyi — PolitiTweet.org