Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 02:22:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a second question: how much uncertainty is there today v. 16? Here, FiveThirtyEight doesn't see much of a difference. TLDR: uncertain fundamentals cancels out fewer undecided voters. Is that right? IDK, and tbh they don't either (one might say that's the uncertainty) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So, for instance, the 538 polls plus estimate of PA/MI/FL on 8/26 in '16, v. today. Are they very different? No, not really. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the strongest substantive critique of the FiveThirtyEight model is that it's leaving info on the table by omitting Trump approval. If you don't know what the fundamentals are--and I don't think we do, empirically--the approval at -10 might help sort it out. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated