Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 02:26:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the strongest substantive critique of the FiveThirtyEight model is that it's leaving info on the table by omitting Trump approval. If you don't know what the fundamentals are--and I don't think we do, empirically--the approval at -10 might help sort it out. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a second question: how much uncertainty is there today v. 16? Here, FiveThirtyEight doesn't see much of a difference. TLDR: uncertain fundamentals cancels out fewer undecided voters. Is that right? IDK, and tbh they don't either (one might say that's the uncertainty) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, they didn't use approval in '16 and presidential approval is not exactly the same as the 'fundamentals,' either. It's so correlated with vote choice that you're getting close to modeling off of the dependent variable here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated