Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 02:28:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, they didn't use approval in '16 and presidential approval is not exactly the same as the 'fundamentals,' either. It's so correlated with vote choice that you're getting close to modeling off of the dependent variable here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the strongest substantive critique of the FiveThirtyEight model is that it's leaving info on the table by omitting Trump approval. If you don't know what the fundamentals are--and I don't think we do, empirically--the approval at -10 might help sort it out. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris not exactly sure what the comparison is here; between 'nowcast' and forecast? i don't think any number--10 v 25-- is intuitively right or wrong, and the only thing i'm confident about is that we don't have anywhere near enough data to answer it with confidence — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated