Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 02:18:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So, for instance, the 538 polls plus estimate of PA/MI/FL on 8/26 in '16, v. today. Are they very different? No, not really. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some valid differences: --538 shifted from 'polls only' to 'polls plus' as default. polls plus in '16 was clinton 73.5% on 8/26 --polling and priors now support a Trump E.C. edge, not yet true in '16 --Biden penalized post DNC https://t.co/KNFyvgkIfw — PolitiTweet.org

IMO this is pretty fundamentally irreconcilable 538, Aug 26 2016: Clinton +4, 18% other/undecided, 81% to win 538,… https://t.co/VbXUF2BHaN

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a second question: how much uncertainty is there today v. 16? Here, FiveThirtyEight doesn't see much of a difference. TLDR: uncertain fundamentals cancels out fewer undecided voters. Is that right? IDK, and tbh they don't either (one might say that's the uncertainty) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated