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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I promise that if we were herding that we absolutely would not have found Biden up in Iowa lol https://t.co/aRKWx7OxbB — PolitiTweet.org
Jean Luc Picat @LucPicat
@Nate_Cohn Herding with selzer
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @jonathanvswan: Democrats pivot to promoting in-person voting https://t.co/qHWwiJcdHZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
So, at least from the perspective of the way we think about defining the likely electorate, Texas is a state where turnout is particularly uncertain and the upside is likely on the side of Mr. Biden. It's something we may think about tailoring a bit more in the future — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
In our experience, an LV model that incorporates vote history outperform self-reported vote--even by a lot. But I have to say, fairly emphatically, that Texas was not one of those states in 2018, probably because there have been so few competitive elections there. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The Texas poll was a bit unusual for our surveys in two respects that are worth noting. 1) Biden and Trump were tied among voters who said they were almost certain or very likely to vote, which is a pretty common LV screen for other pollsters — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Democrats also appear competitive in Senate races in all three states, with a lot of undecided voters: TX: Cornyn 43, Hegar 37 GA: Perdue 41, Ossoff 38 GA special: Loeffler 23, Warnock/Collins 19 Iowa: Greenfield 42, Ernst 40 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
New NYT/Siena polls find a close contest in three states Trump carried easily in 2016: Georgia: 45-45 Iowa: Biden 45, Trump 42 Texas: Trump 46, Biden 43 https://t.co/tH2FRvKA3t — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
And since it's becoming a tradition of sorts: IA: R+3 party ID, Trump+8 in recalled vote among '16 voters TX: R+6, Trump+8 GA: even, Trump+8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Today, Trump fares better in polls of the tipping point states Tomorrow, NYT/Siena in Texas, Georgia, Iowa https://t.co/25zQNpfUd5 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @hollyotterbein: In a letter to GOP state leg leaders, an election official warns 100K PA voters could be disenfranchised b/c of a rulin… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
A rarity: a national Marquette Law poll. Biden+10 https://t.co/uQyIe14YMW — PolitiTweet.org
MULawPoll @MULawPoll
Among likely voters in the nationwide sample, 50% say they will vote for Joe Biden, 40% for Donald Trump, 3% for Li… https://t.co/IvH5nY7jfH
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
One thing that seems pretty real: Arizona to the left of Florida. It was true in 2018. With the exception of a fleeting period in July, it's been true in the polling for most of this cycle. Arizona is not a huge state, but under the right circumstances it's a very important shift — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
*looks at data* nope not here https://t.co/WvoKOZJHIx — PolitiTweet.org
Brandon Finnigan @B_M_Finnigan
WHERE IS IT, NATE
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Well we just had a midterm election in which the gap between GA and FL got even smaller, with Abrams losing by 1.5 while GOP held Florida. We have to be pretty open-minded about where recent electoral trends might be taking us https://t.co/fu5y9WCqCI — PolitiTweet.org
ExpectoPetroleum @GatorPetrol
@Nate_Cohn Based on this conclusion, does it put skeptical light on the ABC poll of FL?
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
In all seriousness, there was a mere 4-5 point gap between GA and PA/FL in 2016. If Biden has a modest lead in PA/FL, he ought to be highly competitive in GA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
the one we've been living in since 2016 https://t.co/aPAV6PGOdf — PolitiTweet.org
John Thorsson @thorsson_john
@Nate_Cohn In what universe is Georgia this close but PA, AZ and FL aren’t out of Trump’s reach?
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Trump a narrow edge in Georgia, per Monmouth. +1 with registered voters +2 or +5 in high or low turnout likely voter universes https://t.co/JETeZeKM6f — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
You should be very open to Florida being R+5 by party ID; in fact, our July poll--with Biden up 6--did find R+5, IIRC. https://t.co/kqMtO0rJtu — PolitiTweet.org
Aaron Astor @AstorAaron
@Nate_Cohn LV/RV split is hard to figure. Florida is not going to be R+5. It was R+1 in 2016.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
It's larger than normal, but a) LV/RV splits are pretty noisy if you depend on self-report as much as they do, and b) Biden probably is at an above average disadvantage in the Sun Belt, where Democrats depend more on lower turnout young and nonwhite voters https://t.co/M0erDKgf8F — PolitiTweet.org
mook the cook @mookcooks
@Nate_Cohn Wtf is going on with these polls? The RV/ LV split is larger than normal, no?
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
ABC/Post has Trump ahead by 4 point in Florida and 1 point in Arizona. Considering the quality of the pollster, they're arguably Trump's best state poll results of the cycle. Even so, Biden still up on average in both states https://t.co/zxZbKQvfjD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
This churn does some interesting things. In almost every election, the voters who drop out (voted '16, not 20) lean Dem, but so do the voters who join. In our polling, for ex., Biden only leads 47-44 among the '16 voters who *remain* in the electorate — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
In our polling, a fairly small chunk of 2016 voters stay home (this is normal), and they're replaced by a somewhat larger chunk of new voters who either sat out last time, moved, or are newly registered. This is normal, and the amount of churn in the electorate is similar to '16 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Biden leads 48 to 42 among voters who participated in the 2016 election This group of respondents is R+2, 32-30 2016 vote: Trump 45, Clinton 43 https://t.co/xkDcZkdevn — PolitiTweet.org
Robert Barnes @Barnes_Law
@Nate_Cohn You do realize your polling is producing a highly unrealistic portion of new voters, and that almost all… https://t.co/mWab9RjGBc
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
For some reason, I have a lot of tweets in my 'interactions' at the moment about party identification. In our seven battleground state polls this month: Horserace: Biden 49, Trump 41 Party ID: R+1, 29 to 30 2016 vote: Trump 39, Clinton 38 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@tysonbrody a dem senate would probably be ignoring it tho — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING TOMORROW: Georgia #GeneralElection. In our JULY poll, Prez race btw. @realDonaldTrump & @JoeBiden was tight. @SenD… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @Redistrict: Look, regardless of the outcome, 80-100k or more PA ballots being tossed out on a technicality is a foreseeable train wreck… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
And obviously it goes without saying that someone could outperform the polls by more than 2! — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
A different way to think about it: --If Biden outperforms the polls by 2, he's the winner on 11/3 with a FL call at 8PM and--no joke--a TX call possibly making Biden pres-elect. --If Trump outperforms by 2, we've got to wait days for Biden to squeak out PA/MI/WI w mail votes — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The world where Biden's basically tied in GA/TX/IA/OH but can't claim a clear 5 point lead in PA/FL averages is one *really* easy for the race to either turn into a total blowout or a highly competitive contest, with a big popular vote-Electoral College gap — PolitiTweet.org
