Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Sep 23 11:26:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

ABC/Post has Trump ahead by 4 point in Florida and 1 point in Arizona. Considering the quality of the pollster, they're arguably Trump's best state poll results of the cycle. Even so, Biden still up on average in both states https://t.co/zxZbKQvfjD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This churn does some interesting things. In almost every election, the voters who drop out (voted '16, not 20) lean Dem, but so do the voters who join. In our polling, for ex., Biden only leads 47-44 among the '16 voters who *remain* in the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's larger than normal, but a) LV/RV splits are pretty noisy if you depend on self-report as much as they do, and b) Biden probably is at an above average disadvantage in the Sun Belt, where Democrats depend more on lower turnout young and nonwhite voters https://t.co/M0erDKgf8F — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Wtf is going on with these polls? The RV/ LV split is larger than normal, no?

Posted Sept. 23, 2020 Hibernated