Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the article and the table was the more responsible approach — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now that it's all over and would have been right, it would have been incredible to publish. But it was a tough number: Biden at >95% to win but only up 2 points. And if it was wrong, it would have been hanging out there for several stressful days — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The other version, which we did not publish but has been updating internally here since early AM on Tuesday, used county x vote method data and featured a semi-circular dial with a long outstretched arm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This graphic--the one published in the article--is not the only graphical representation of the PA vote that we constructed that morning... https://t.co/pfmEc7TyVv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This article was finished around that time or maybe thereafter, and I didn't think there was much room for it to be wrong https://t.co/TmBVmHpQ8E — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the absentee vote created so much uncertainty about PA/MI that I didn't really think about it in those terms. After 1AM or so, I spent quite a bit of time on PA, and by 4AM or so I concluded that the race was over to my satisfaction https://t.co/kU5XSPJ9fi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the needle did know way more than we did. It knew how many remaining votes were heavily Democratic absentee. It knew the Election Day vote left in DeKalb was in black areas, and so on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayBarbuto https://t.co/y3e50b1XXF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I think it's the best information we had at the time. Even when the needle did go to Biden in Georgia my first reaction was... skeptical, given the less-than-2018 results we had generally observed in other Sun Belt metros, including fast trending TX/AZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the sequence was different, you can imagine that we would have quickly seen what was happening in Georgia, but might have wrongly believed that Biden was going to do better than he did in CLT/Raleigh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And indeed, something very different did happen there--at least with respect to either 2016, our expectations, and controlling for demographics. https://t.co/WmEezG9qqf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The sequence is key. Early on, Trump beat our expectations basically everywhere in NC/FL, and black turnout in rural GA was meh. We then had to wait a while for big numbers from Atlanta, which eventually made clear something very different happened there https://t.co/P8LT2zAdy4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I guess by that point we did have the AZ early vote, which would have kept the non-Rust Belt path alive. But it's not like Biden was an overwhelming favorite in WI at that point either, and I do think this was well before the needle came around on Georgia — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There was some conflicting info among white northerners at that point: MN/ME/NH were fine for Biden, WI was close, and rural OH/IA were worse than 2016. IDK how I would have sorted it out if forced. But there was no way to know that this red wasn't bleeding to PA https://t.co/pJjlgRrLCh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There was a point on Tuesday night--not sure the time, you can probably find the tweet--when the eastern Ohio counties came in and I think I would have thought very hard about calling Trump the favorite https://t.co/ISVvm1b3aS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I see no effect of 11/4 coronavirus cases on either turnout or vote, controlling for standard demogs, in county level data (could change w more results). My pre-election prior was COVID cases would help Biden; my post-election hunch was it might have hurt him (WI) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@POLITICO_Steve it's hard to avoid thinking that it was just about the bad arizona call — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nevada goes to Biden, according to the AP. Better late than never, I guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@POLITICO_Steve and fox has had the exact same set of data over that whole period — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@POLITICO_Steve it was a lot more than 10 minutes 15 hours ago — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I continue to have no idea why Nevada is uncalled by others, but Fox calling it first won't do much to dispel the suspicion I've seen in my replies--that the non-call in NV was to prevent Fox/AP from calling it based on a bad AZ call — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I continue to have no idea why Nevada is uncalled by others, but Fox calling it first won't do much to dispel the suspicion I've seen in my replies--that the non-call in NV was to protect Fox/AP from calling it based on a bad AZ call — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Fox calls Pennsylvania *and* Nevada, making Biden president-elect — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/V5t8OrivpW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The winning map: Biden currently has 273 electoral votes, and he leads in states worth 306 https://t.co/1vPacDIGl3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The remaining vote could expand Biden's lead in Pennsylvania to well over 100,000 votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well it's about time: Joe Biden is the president-elect. He's carried the state of Pennsylvania, and I can report t… https://t.co/7T0zpYXqGX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New ballots in Pennsylvania expand Joe Biden's lead to 0.459 pts, bringing him ever closer to the .5 threshold that… https://t.co/bZe4Em6AaA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The other big thing that could help Biden: if there's fewer ballots left than the state's website suggests. Headin… https://t.co/1hlpBw4A6F — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do continue to think there's more reason to expect things to trend Biden's way than not, because I'd *guess* the provisionals are better for Biden and that is the longer term trendline. But we don't know that for a fact. — PolitiTweet.org