Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Nov 07 22:05:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The sequence is key. Early on, Trump beat our expectations basically everywhere in NC/FL, and black turnout in rural GA was meh. We then had to wait a while for big numbers from Atlanta, which eventually made clear something very different happened there https://t.co/P8LT2zAdy4 — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Can you explain what data the needle was interpreting to project a close race in Georgia?

Posted Nov. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I guess by that point we did have the AZ early vote, which would have kept the non-Rust Belt path alive. But it's not like Biden was an overwhelming favorite in WI at that point either, and I do think this was well before the needle came around on Georgia — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And indeed, something very different did happen there--at least with respect to either 2016, our expectations, and controlling for demographics. https://t.co/WmEezG9qqf — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 7, 2020 Hibernated