Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Nov 07 21:56:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I guess by that point we did have the AZ early vote, which would have kept the non-Rust Belt path alive. But it's not like Biden was an overwhelming favorite in WI at that point either, and I do think this was well before the needle came around on Georgia — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There was some conflicting info among white northerners at that point: MN/ME/NH were fine for Biden, WI was close, and rural OH/IA were worse than 2016. IDK how I would have sorted it out if forced. But there was no way to know that this red wasn't bleeding to PA https://t.co/pJjlgRrLCh — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The sequence is key. Early on, Trump beat our expectations basically everywhere in NC/FL, and black turnout in rural GA was meh. We then had to wait a while for big numbers from Atlanta, which eventually made clear something very different happened there https://t.co/P8LT2zAdy4 — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Can you explain what data the needle was interpreting to project a close race in Georgia?

Posted Nov. 7, 2020 Hibernated