Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's one thing I feel confident about: Dem strength in early voting means the GOP will need to do really well on Election Day--in terms of both turnout and margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But the GOP has not had an equal opportunity to show their hand, because we don't have great election day numbers from Trump country and because we know they don't love early voting. We'll see their hand soon enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far, Democrats have shown a strong hand. At every point, whether it's the early vote or the DeKalb numbers today, you can look at the Democratic numbers and say, 'wow' if they were going to win maybe that's what it would look like — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But this is not a regularly scheduled election, and you can make up a 2 point deficit on turnout in this context. You can get an AL Senate special result that just wouldn't have happened if it had been scheduled in Nov 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If this was regularly scheduled, we'd probably just call the clear GOP favorite. We had a 'perfect' poll of 5 million Georgians in November, and they favored Perdue. It's very hard to makeup a 2 point deficit on turnout, especially for the Democrats, in a high turnout race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few thoughts as we head into the polls closing. Let me start with the very most obvious one: this is not a regularly scheduled election, and that always makes it harder to predict — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Alex_Sheasley @Redistrict @KevinQ taco — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @KevinQ eating but was 58.3k last checked — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

DeKalb election day turnout now at 47182, surpassing the number of ballots cast on election day in the presidential contest — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

DeKalb election day turnout approaching 46k, if these figures are accurate, putting it on track to surpass the general. The big question, of course, is whether this simply augurs for a big D turnout (as this is a very D county) or a big Election Day turnout (the key to the GOP) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/0j5ZRA34Y8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

DeKalb is not be my top choice for where we'd have this data, as it's extremely Democratic, and we're mainly interested in high election day turnout insofar as it helps the GOP. So one could spin it both ways. But it does indicate a fairly healthy election day turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Assuming I'm correctly interpreting the data on the below site (and thanks to @KevinQ for a clutch scrape), it seems there are 37.5k ballots cast in DeKalb, which would seem to put it on pace to approach or exceed the general election day tally (47k) https://t.co/JXK5YMnu1D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Are there any hard Georgia turnout numbers this afternoon? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing: a lot of people, myself included, have sometimes referred to a Dem lead in net-votes, rather than pct. margin. The difference between D+350k and D+200k seems huge, but it doesn't seem so intimidating as D+6 v D+11--not huge given the low precision of the estimates — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I see a lot of various estimates of how the advance vote went in Georgia, and one thing I'll note is that it's not at all clear what most mean: is, say, "D+6" or "D+13" by primary vote history, modeled party, modeled Biden vote, modeled Ossoff? etc. They're very different! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AmyEGardner: FOLKS: Full audio published here. Please retweet far and wide. https://t.co/QqIsaNw5pA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jahenderson0 for who in what? i think that among ballots in already that ossoff was at something like 300k in our estimate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jahenderson0 can't be rejected i suppose, but i think you'll find it suggests something very close to our estimate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another perfect phone call https://t.co/pyR3HDri1W — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jahenderson0 take a look at what you get with precinct EI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga similar churn by method, interestingly (this adds up to perdue 50.1) https://t.co/EgJgq4wD7e — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga and right or wrong, the 2020 election day vote winds up breaking much like your earlier charts: among 2020 eday who return to the polls, 84% vote on eday, 3% vote abs, 13% vote ipev; 2020 IPEV who return to the polls are 82 IPEV, 13 eday, 4% abs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga the eday vote using this 2020-eday model reduced to 1.1 million (4.25 overall, keeping in mind that we're adding some absentee ballots): 25% in person EV, 4% people who voted abs, 11% new, balance returning eday. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga i'm missing the inference you're making from this. i don't see any surprise that EIPV-->early vote would remain overwhelmingly EIPIV. am i supposed to take 12% ED-->EIPV as prima facia evidence that the flow will only run in that direction? 12% IPEV-->ED would be 450k votes! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EdAsante77 it's mainly among younger voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga is there an empirical basis to assume that the general election vote by method distribution is terribly predictive, especially in a case when there were far early voting opportunities? doesn't look like it to me — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga i look at it differently, i guess: i don't find a turnout of 4.2 million to be nuts for an election like this, and there's no reason they can't vote now if they didn't already. it's not like most of these folks haven't voted on election day in other circumstances — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga i'm not predicting anything, but i don't see why that's crazy, especially considering how many fewer voting opportunities there were to vote early this time and that it's not a regular election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga why? — PolitiTweet.org