Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 23, 2022

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Sun Jan 03 19:32:27 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga the eday vote using this 2020-eday model reduced to 1.1 million (4.25 overall, keeping in mind that we're adding some absentee ballots): 25% in person EV, 4% people who voted abs, 11% new, balance returning eday. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga i'm missing the inference you're making from this. i don't see any surprise that EIPV-->early vote would remain overwhelmingly EIPIV. am i supposed to take 12% ED-->EIPV as prima facia evidence that the flow will only run in that direction? 12% IPEV-->ED would be 450k votes! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga and right or wrong, the 2020 election day vote winds up breaking much like your earlier charts: among 2020 eday who return to the polls, 84% vote on eday, 3% vote abs, 13% vote ipev; 2020 IPEV who return to the polls are 82 IPEV, 13 eday, 4% abs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated