Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting that Republicans (64%) and Democrats (63%) are about equally likely to say they're "worn out" by lifestyle changes because of the pandemic (though Republicans are more likely to say that they're a *lot* warn out). https://t.co/nFer1LZpno https://t.co/xTYq3GY6L9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WPT @SavagePoker Not the world's best photo but couldn't resist playing in one more big tourney this year. https://t.co/D1kqVXHyKo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron Manhattan, NYC (before new policy went into place this week): Subway (required): 80%, grocery stores (hadn't been required) 65%, gym (hadn't been required) 25%, Knicks/Rangers games (vax required but no mask) 10%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes @michaelbd @JamesSurowiecki Yeah I guess this is probably an unpopular view, and I definitely have some specific critiques, but NYC has done better than a lot of places. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@michaelbd @JamesSurowiecki Yeah if you're a vaccinated adult, the NPIs in place have been pretty modest in NYC. Nor is enforcement that zealous and people generally mind their own business. I hear more complaints from friends with kids. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@michaelbd @JamesSurowiecki "Get vaccinated and go back to normal" is the real silent majority IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd The race swung toward Youngkin after McAuliffe's gaffe/bad answer on schools. Lots of polling data suggested education was a big issue for voters, as did a lot of on-the-ground reporting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If anything school closures don't get nearly enough media attention IMO given the enormous near- and long-term effects they had and will have on people's lives. And of course that's going to be a voting issue for some people, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The thermostatic politics explanations are pretty lazy IMO. There's a fair bit of variance in how large thermostatic swings are, the swing in VA was notably larger than in the CA recall election a few months earlier, and policy toward schools was a big deal in the VA campaign. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara @thehowie I get occasional hints of hostility toward COVID restrictions from my (mostly college-educated and fairly liberal) friends, especially from parents. But more common is sort of an eye-rolling "people can do what they want but for me/my family it's time to move past this". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why is that? Maybe partly because polls misestimated COVID attitudes and behaviors (see below) and maybe partly because of preference intensity, i.e. the anti-restriction people were more likely to change their vote because of it. https://t.co/t50Py7u87I — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"More popular than liberals assumed at the time" is an important qualifier there. Trump's superficially very poor polling numbers on COVID didn't translate into an especially clear electoral penalty, and we wound up with about the election result that pre-COVID polls projected. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara New York is mostly back to normal, too, and people are not that hung up about COVID. But, there's a difference between an attitude of "This is incredibly tragic, but it's been two years and I'm vaccinated and I need to get on with life" and the hostile vibe in the Atlantic story. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara I don't think it's the majority. There is a very large middle ground between the completely indifferent attitude of the dude who wrote the Atlantic story and the lockdown-lovin' liberals who want to stop vaccinated college students from socializing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Whether or not you're convinced by this specific claim, we continue to get little hints (the Virginia gubernatorial race was another) that Trump's COVID policies were more popular than liberals assumed at the time. https://t.co/sm1P1p4RTI https://t.co/kIXrdlsQj7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 We don't have primary Omicron infection sera to test against Delta. But we will soon observe degree to which Omic… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@trvrb Do we know anything about how well an Omicron infection is likely to protect against Delta, as opposed to the other way around? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin @mattyglesias @JamesSurowiecki What's weird though is, like Matt, I mostly don't know people IRL who are super covid-cautious (maybe 2 or 3 exceptions off-hand) despite their being squarely in the NYT-reading coastal high-edu demographic. And that goes for people in different age ranges, with/without kids etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @mattyglesias My point (and Matt's, I think) is that a large majority of people have "returned to normal" by doing things in person and may make tweaks around the margins but aren't asking themselves things like "is it safe to dine indoors?". And that's not what's reflected in e.g. the NYT. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think there's a dynamic that's like: Everyone realized the excessively covid-cautious aren't going to be persuaded out of it and just quietly left them to themselves, so they’re still having the same conversations with one another but don't realize how few people are listening. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I'd say the market is drawing fairly strong conclusions re: severity with a recovery in COVID-sensitive stocks (e.g. airlines, cruise lines, hotels and casinos) over the past 10 days despite mostly bad news on immune escape and transmissibility. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 Fair. I think it’s clear that because the average case is much more likely to be reinfection or breakthrough, per… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Been a weird leap in the discourse from "Omicron isn't necessarily intrinsically milder, the lack of severe outcomes could just reflect immunity from vaccines/past exposures" (OK, fair) to assuming it *isn't* intrinsically milder, which *also* seems way ahead of the evidence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 I just wonder what an SEIR model looks like if you assume there is extreme heterogeneity in susceptibility to Omicron, which you'd think there must be with a variant with partial but incomplete immune escape. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although, in the "possibly a blip" department, South Africa is issuing some caveats on the data here. https://t.co/yDX9J8y4Y4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Don't know if this is sustainable or a blip (case growth is already showing signs of leveling off in South Africa) but I'm reminded of @phl43's work which suggests variants initially have a very large transmission advantage which then levels off. https://t.co/ImKXo0ccfT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidcho I mean there are definitely lots of conflicting strands of media bias that manifest themselves in different ways. But IMO the "overcompensating to prove we're not liberal" strand is receding and some of the more expressly liberal ones are gaining relative to 5-10 years ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp But the algorithm is *science*, Derek! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CarlBialik Fair enough. Now <=582, though! https://t.co/YuD1O5cnNT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This holds doubly BTW if you think voter concern about inflation is just a matter of media bias. It is literally the canonical example of something that has a highly visible impact, in the form of prices that voters encounter every day, with or without media coverage. — PolitiTweet.org