Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 4, 2022

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Tue Dec 14 17:42:39 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why is that? Maybe partly because polls misestimated COVID attitudes and behaviors (see below) and maybe partly because of preference intensity, i.e. the anti-restriction people were more likely to change their vote because of it. https://t.co/t50Py7u87I — PolitiTweet.org

Why? 1) People who are staying home b/c of COVID easier to reach 2) COVID concern tends to be higher among high-ed… https://t.co/cPz898Seos

Posted Dec. 14, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"More popular than liberals assumed at the time" is an important qualifier there. Trump's superficially very poor polling numbers on COVID didn't translate into an especially clear electoral penalty, and we wound up with about the election result that pre-COVID polls projected. — PolitiTweet.org

I'm not sure I agree with this ... what I do think is that vaccines became widely available in Spring 2021 and that… https://t.co/BCKbRR5pro

Posted Dec. 14, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara @thehowie I get occasional hints of hostility toward COVID restrictions from my (mostly college-educated and fairly liberal) friends, especially from parents. But more common is sort of an eye-rolling "people can do what they want but for me/my family it's time to move past this". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2021