Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, the trend in the cases numbers is comparatively good, both on its own and (more importantly) as a share of tests. Today was the lowest positive test rate yet (8.6%), in fact, and we've been <10% for two days in a row. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Perhaps more troubling though than the daily spike is the fact that we had more deaths in the past 7 days (12,782) than in the 7 days before that (12,054). Although the period two weeks ago was slightly worse (14,405). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This was a very mixed bag. Tuesdays often result in spikes in deaths as states report data after weekend lags. This issue is getting bigger as NY (which did NOT have big week/weekend lags) is declining as a share of deaths. We had a BIG spike today to more than 2,500 deaths. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 2,527 Yesterday: 912 One week ago (4/28): 2,198 Newly reported cases: T: 22K Y: 21K 4/28: 24K Newly reported tests: T: 259K Y: 232K 4/28: 201K Positive test rate: T: 9% Y: 9% 4/28: 12% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you greatly expand testing—something that is CRUCIAL to reopening SAFELY—and then a bunch of news articles slam you because your state is finding more cases as a result of doing more tests, they're actively misinforming people and creating disincentives to do more tests. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, in Texas's case they are doing **A LOT** more testing now. Testing has more than doubled within a couple of weeks. So Gov. Abbott is correct to say you have to distinguish a real increase from one caused by an increase in testing. https://t.co/jY0LmQbkx6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's an element of "gotcha" in these stories, as though these governors are deceiving people. But, as far as I can tell, these governors aren't really claiming that re-opening won't result in an increase. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

LOL https://t.co/Bthb7C5Cxl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3) Comparisons to Sweden are becoming trickier now because they may have "succeeded" in building up immunity; the government says 30% have been infected at some point in Stockholm, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2d) But it's also important to recognize that we've been a long way from an Lombardy or Wuhan-style lockdown where you'd see a rapid decline. A few places that are either *very* rural or may have built up some immunity have gotten a steep decline, but most places haven't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2c) So while you can squint and say the US isn't THAT different than Sweden (but maybe we're backing into being Sweden now?) the differences possibly span a critical threshold whereas their R is slightly >1 (by design, they want herd immunity!) and ours has been just *barely* <1. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2b) The US, conversely, had been something like 3/4 of the way to an Italy-style lockdown. We allow pretty big carveouts for essential services, don't have many restrictions on outdoor activity, and a few parts of the country never formally locked down at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) Sweden really is sort of 1/2 way in between a strict, Italy-style lockdown and the pre-COVID normal. It's important to recognize that they ARE doing a lot of distancing. But also, it DOES seem like there are fair numbers of people there going to restaurants, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good thread. I definitely agree w/ the point that informal behavior can matter more than formal rules. But a few small quibbles: 1) A lot of places are *starting* to look like Sweden *now*, with more people out and about. But they were more locked down until recently. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @friscojosh: Good explainer thread from my very sharp quantitative editor. https://t.co/WPBrr2NGhI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @kjhealy: One more thing. The "Cubic Fit" from the CEA is that red line. But what's that weird bit where it turns from red dashes to pin… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @mattyglesias @latimes This is a more complicated case, because I think they were well-intentioned, but there were also a lot of scary projections about hospitals all over the country (not just NYC) being overrun that has likely led to a lot of hospital-avoidance, which may have serious consequences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin The reporting and editing was poor and so people should knock it and ask the LA Times what happened. There is an awful lot of accepting a non-peer-reviewed study's claims at face value and spinning them in strange/scary ways, and not much reporting/context from other experts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's a deeply misleading and irresponsible @latimes article today that has people panicked. https://t.co/64XaiZ6cDX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias But I also don't know if Trump/the governors' response necessarily reflects different projections so much as different views of the trade-offs? (Also, there are some ways in which greater optimism might lead you to be *more* likely to extend shutdowns.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I'm mostly talking about stories along the lines of "THE DISEASE IS MUTATING!" and "PEOPLE ARE GETTING REINFECTED!" and "THERE IS NO PROOF OF IMMUNITY!" and "IT HAS BEEN AEROSOLIZED", more science-y kind of stuff with scary headlines. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's lots of pushback when things are framed in overly optimistic ways—say when a study that doesn't represent the consensus gets a lot of press. That's good. But there also needs to be pushback when things are framed in overly scary/pessimistic ways and there's less of that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@llsethj @darth I'm not sure I'd use those terms .... but yeah, there is indeed some evidence that people are being more careful in places where more people have died. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For various reasons, discussions about immunity trigger a lot of political conversations and misperceptions (e.g. people remembering misleading headlines about "re-infections", etc.) But it's hard to explain the data we're seeing in some places (NYC, Sweden) if it isn't a factor. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh, people use the phase "herd immunity" in different ways, which is why I've shifted to the phrase "PARTIAL herd immunity". 20% immunity will meaningfully reduce transmission. It won't keep R<1 on its own without other measures (e.g. distancing) however. https://t.co/S0jM6tl5ji — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seems worth asking why is NY's trajectory so much better than the rest of the country and the extent to which it breaks down into the following 3 buckets: 1) NY has been good about social distancing 2) NY is benefitting from partial herd immunity (~20% had COVID in NYC) 3) other — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Positive test rates are down to 10% in New York State and 11% in New York City. They were 50% and 60% at the peak of the crisis. New hospitalizations were also way down today, too, per, Cuomo. https://t.co/1w2VrzC4FG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@skepticalsports @mattyglesias @jbarro I think you're overestimating how credible the average Democrat sees the accusations as being. Whether that reflects partisanship or something else is another question, of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart There's probably going to be a second wave of Discourse about Sweden soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @jbarro According to prediction markets (which are dumb but fun), the most likely replacements would be HiLLaRy CLiNtON and Andrew Cuomo. — PolitiTweet.org