Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Tue May 05 17:02:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seems worth asking why is NY's trajectory so much better than the rest of the country and the extent to which it breaks down into the following 3 buckets: 1) NY has been good about social distancing 2) NY is benefitting from partial herd immunity (~20% had COVID in NYC) 3) other — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Positive test rates are down to 10% in New York State and 11% in New York City. They were 50% and 60% at the peak of the crisis. New hospitalizations were also way down today, too, per, Cuomo. https://t.co/1w2VrzC4FG — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh, people use the phase "herd immunity" in different ways, which is why I've shifted to the phrase "PARTIAL herd immunity". 20% immunity will meaningfully reduce transmission. It won't keep R<1 on its own without other measures (e.g. distancing) however. https://t.co/S0jM6tl5ji — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Sorry, Nate, 20% immunity does not confer herd immunity benefits.

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated