Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Tue May 05 19:23:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2c) So while you can squint and say the US isn't THAT different than Sweden (but maybe we're backing into being Sweden now?) the differences possibly span a critical threshold whereas their R is slightly >1 (by design, they want herd immunity!) and ours has been just *barely* <1. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2b) The US, conversely, had been something like 3/4 of the way to an Italy-style lockdown. We allow pretty big carveouts for essential services, don't have many restrictions on outdoor activity, and a few parts of the country never formally locked down at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2d) But it's also important to recognize that we've been a long way from an Lombardy or Wuhan-style lockdown where you'd see a rapid decline. A few places that are either *very* rural or may have built up some immunity have gotten a steep decline, but most places haven't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated