Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would nonsarcastically like to read a series of interviews with white working-class voters in the Midwest who are wavering on Trump and what they think about all of this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, ~all of Biden's gains relative to Clinton in the battlegrounds are because of white voters, both college and noncollege whites. Interesting in the context of the protests and Trump's attempts to appeal to white identity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The tipping-point state here would be either Pennsylvania or Florida, where Biden is 7 points ahead. So, still a bit of an Electoral College - popular vote gap in Trump's favor. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Current polling averages National: Biden +9.5 MI: Biden +9.7 NV: Biden +8.7 WI: Biden +8.4 NH: Biden +8.2 PA: Biden +7.0 FL: Biden +7.0 AZ: Biden +4.9 NC: Biden +2.8 OH: Biden +2.5 GA: Biden +1.3 IA: Tie Reminder: a snapshot, not a forecast. https://t.co/wKbW02AGO5 https://t.co/NwMixddVec — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Because it's hotter and people are doing more stuff in indoor/air-conditioned environments. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm But this is typically a point where approval reverts to 50/50 a bit as people are increasingly in an election mindset and treat approval as tantamount to a re-election question. So it's an inopportune moment to be losing ground. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Getting up there. He had some bad periods around the shutdown, and then in summer 2017 post-Comey-firing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Unlike in some past periods, Trump's approval ratings have continued to gradually worsen rather than reverting to the mean. I'm a mean-reversion guy and am still expecting some mean reversion. But it hasn't happened yet. https://t.co/Vfmzd6B2ps https://t.co/0CGcgR7omH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @chrislhayes Yeah, it's the double whammy of having a little bit of population-level immunity (even 10% helps at the margin) and experience/caution that matters I think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @chrislhayes Yeah. And to complicate things a bit further, some of the rest of the West Coast (WA/OR/HI) does have a fairly high R right now, but from a low baseline of prevalence, so cases are growing but the absolute numbers aren't high. So I'm not quite sure what category to put them in. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @chrislhayes I don't think California overall is as bad as TX/FL/AZ right now, but Southern California may be. LA County had 2,300 new cases yesterday, which per capita is very similar to TX/FL. Northern California's doing fine, conversely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @chrislhayes Yeah, the comparison is complicated. But *within* the US, current spread is very well-explained by climate and seroprevalence and *not* super well explained by policy or political factors. e.g. California is having big issues right now despite having had a strict lockdown. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I think the jury is out on how well "preventative lockdowns" work. You may just postpone problems and burn people out on lockdown measures. I think some of the lockdowns in the South/West also fell into the preventative category; many states had little spread in March/April. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @chrislhayes There's a ... surprising overlap between those categories. Mexico is fairly large and populous and has had a bad outbreak, but I don't know what category you put AMLO in. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Meaning that it's hard to set a uniform policy if you have a lot of district regions but it may also be hard to have a good policy if you don't have a uniform policy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I don't know that one can assume that Europe, especially the parts of Europe that didn't get hit badly before, is necessarily past its problems. That aside, it does seem that large, populous countries (Brazil, Russia, India, USA) have struggled more than small/medium-sized ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @chrislhayes Like, one thing I've wondered about is that if there are superspreaders who contribute to a substantial initial spark... in places that went on lockdown before the suprespreaders had a chance to superspread, maybe they cause big problems once the lockdown is released. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @chrislhayes Yeah, not that high in Southern Italy. But likely still meaningfully higher than the Southern and Western US which outside of a few hotspots (New Orleans) just didn't get hit badly at all in March/April. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I'm less concerned about culture and more about geography, density, climate (particularly indoor vs. outdoor activity; Europe famously lacks air conditioning) and seroprevalence. I think those factors tend to be underrated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's harder to know what to compare the US South/Southwest/West to and it probably varies state by state. But FWIW the trajectory there looks a lot like Latin America, which is generally having huge problems right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well, I sort of think it's a tale of two countries. The numbers in the Northeastern US have looked an awful lot like Italy's or other European hotspots. And they have a lot in common re: density, climate, socioeconomic status & the degree of seroprevalence in the population. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And yet, deaths were down week over week. I just don't know how long that'll last. Even under rather optimistic assumptions (say an IFR of 0.5% and we're now capturing ~1 in 3 cases instead of ~1 in 10) an additional 15-20K known cases per day is going to exert upward pressure. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

States with 1,000+ new cases today. Some high-population states in here but ... again, these numbers are just really quite high. California: 7,149 Texas: 5,551 Florida: 5,511 Arizona: 1,795 North Carolina: 1,721 Georgia: 1,703 South Carolina: 1,284 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Welp, that is a LOT of new cases. The most cases in a day, ever. It is probably not the most actual *infections*, because there's much more testing now than in March/April. But, the positive test rate has gone WAY up over the past two weeks. So, testing doesn't excuse this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 702 Yesterday: 773 One week ago (6/17): 778 Newly reported cases T: 39K* Y: 33K 6/17: 24K Newly reported tests T: 502K Y: 511K 6/17: 489K Positive test rate T: 7.7% Y: 6.4% 6/17: 4.9% * record high — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I think part of the issue is that 80% normal is perhaps pushing it, especially at times of the year when you can't shift activities outdoors. So let's say it's 60%. Then there are going to be a lot of disagreements over what belongs in the 60% and what belongs in the 40%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dmorey Touché. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People should be careful with the blue states vs. red states narrative. Some blue states (NV, OR, CA; especially southern CA) are having issues, too. And the states having the worst issues right now are really purple states more than red states, although most have GOP governors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our average has Biden up 7.4 in Wisconsin. Biden's lead in Wisconsin has expanded considerably more than his nati… https://t.co/L2ad29S7eL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Signs that people are modifying their behavior in the worst-affected states. Just as behavior that contributes to spread can take a few weeks to work its way through the data, though, so can behavior that mitigates it, so numbers may still get worse in the near term. — PolitiTweet.org