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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris There is no "validation set" other than reality. You can't determine predictive accuracy until a mo… https://t.co/94y5f6yhXX — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris Again, I don't think you're getting my point. Given "reasonable" choices of parameters, backtesting… https://t.co/Pmsmk0Mv6K — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris This is such a fundamental point that it depresses me a bit about the status of "data science" education tbh. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris You're really not getting it. You didn't publish a model in 2016. It's neither interesting nor rele… https://t.co/bVPTx8ZOO1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris To put it another way, the easy part of forecasting is fitting a model and the hard part is knowing… https://t.co/Kg1PFluopa — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris Backtesting does help to an extent but then you encounter negative returns if you overfit. But do… https://t.co/FX0RbSF3Gr — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris Fundamentally, the failure to understand that *fitting a model* is not the same thing as *out-of-sa… https://t.co/k9xdUEWwzq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris It wasn't really about you or anyone in particular but if you're talking about a historical record… https://t.co/BR6v0HVC2u — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It is generally better to think more carefully about how to pragmatically account for real-world uncertainty in a f… https://t.co/RjjEzNARdn — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's good to see deaths and cases decline vs. last Saturday. With that said, a number of states are having reportin… https://t.co/7HWv2NZXw9 — PolitiTweet.org
The COVID Tracking Project @COVID19Tracking
It’s difficult to understand what’s happening with COVID-19 data right now, but we’re hoping to see better data soo… https://t.co/Rq5vuZaBbJ
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 1,088 Yesterday: 1,333 One week ago (8/1): 1,1… https://t.co/31K5k0tz1e — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The thing about the VPstakes is there are a lot of actions that are consistent either with creating some subterfuge… https://t.co/keJFDK9abi — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In other words, if Harris allies would not be very happy with the choice of Rice or Bass, and vice versa ... well then, maybe you aren't sure you can make a choice that unites Black Democrats behind you anyway. And then you start considering Whitmer. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In the abstract, Whitmer would be a logical enough choice as Biden's VP. What I wonder about is the extent to which there are Democrats who are advocating for Biden to pick a woman of color, as opposed to advocates for individual choices (Harris, etc.) https://t.co/lrPY3IYSjQ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Same story as in recent days. Deaths still high, though the 7-day average death count is holding roughly flat. Cases also still very high but slightly declining week over week. However, test volume has been stagnant lately. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 1,333 Yesterday: 1,251 One week ago (7/31): 1,311 Newly reported cases T: 62K Y: 54K 7/31: 68K Newly reported tests T: 763K Y: 732K 7/31: 726K Positive test rate T: 8.1% Y: 7.4% 7/31: 9.3% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
During that time, Trump's approval for his handling of COVID has worsened. But, the economy has gotten a bit better. So, worsening approval on COVID, but the protests getting less coverage + some economic improvement may be enough to make the race slightly tighter. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It may be worth recalling that Biden was leading Trump by "only" 6 points when the George Floyd protests began. So, as the protests have faded from view a bit, perhaps not hugely surprising that the race has tightened by a point or two toward Biden +8. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This is interesting. There's a fairly high correlation between pollster quality (as judged by our pollster ratings) and a poll's house effect, with higher-quality polls tending to show better numbers for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Here, for instance, are House Effects by 538 pollster rating (where 0 is their "A+" and 1 is an "D-") As you can se… https://t.co/y25eYSMb1b
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Anna_Rothschild: 🥳Job Alert🥳 I'm looking for a part-time video and motion graphics producer to join the @FiveThirtyEight team! For now… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Midtown Manhattan feels a bit like (pre-pandemic) downtown Houston or Dallas or something in terms of the overall level of density and hustle and bustle right now. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One source of uncertainty is that quite a few states are having reporting issues of one kind or another right now, which has likely depressed the numbers for the past few days, especially the number of cases and tests. https://t.co/hR6CsgKalA — PolitiTweet.org
The COVID Tracking Project @COVID19Tracking
Given the hiccups with daily numbers right now, it may be helpful to focus on the weekly trends that we’ve compiled… https://t.co/1VDcgQv2vO
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We are starting to see the death numbers plateau, which would make sense given that cases began to plateau a couple of weeks ago. The @youyanggu model indeed thinks we're at a plateau, although note the wide confidence bands denoting high uncertainty. https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 https://t.co/TI0xt1OTGl — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 1,251 Yesterday: 1,403 One week ago (7/30): 1,259 Newly reported cases T: 54K Y: 52K 7/30: 69K Newly reported tests T: 732K Y: 682K 7/30: 806K Positive test rate T: 7.4% Y: 7.7% 7/30: 8.6% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's a fairly big gap once you get beyond Georgia/Texas/Iowa/Ohio to the next set of states that Biden could win in a landslide. Our model actually thinks Alaska is his next-most-likely win after that, though South Carolina is also a decent candidate. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Hot take: Whether or not the predictions are important unto itself, working on predictive modeling is one of the best ways to improve your overall quantitative intuition and toolkit and so most social scientists would benefit from doing more of it. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @cwarshaw My next contention: someone reading the peer-reviewed literature on this topic, or how political scientists have discussed it in public forums, would incorrectly come to the conclusion that it's far greater than 25%. Do you agree? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @cwarshaw Let's get specific then. What percentage of voting behavior do you think can really be predicted based on economic conditions? i.e. what is the true out-of-sample R2? I think it's something like 25%. Do you agree? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias This is so weird Brendan. It's a strawman to call my position a strawman! I'm saying that the theory that American elections are largely determined by economic conditions is false. Do you agree with that? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias I think you're missing my point here, which is that a lot of political science theories about how and why voters behave as they do are vastly overstated (even largely untrue) because they're drawn from overfit models on small samples. — PolitiTweet.org
