Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 06 16:46:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @cwarshaw My next contention: someone reading the peer-reviewed literature on this topic, or how political scientists have discussed it in public forums, would incorrectly come to the conclusion that it's far greater than 25%. Do you agree? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @cwarshaw Let's get specific then. What percentage of voting behavior do you think can really be predicted based on economic conditions? i.e. what is the true out-of-sample R2? I think it's something like 25%. Do you agree? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hot take: Whether or not the predictions are important unto itself, working on predictive modeling is one of the best ways to improve your overall quantitative intuition and toolkit and so most social scientists would benefit from doing more of it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated