Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 06 16:23:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias This is so weird Brendan. It's a strawman to call my position a strawman! I'm saying that the theory that American elections are largely determined by economic conditions is false. Do you agree with that? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias I think you're missing my point here, which is that a lot of political science theories about how and why voters behave as they do are vastly overstated (even largely untrue) because they're drawn from overfit models on small samples. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @cwarshaw Let's get specific then. What percentage of voting behavior do you think can really be predicted based on economic conditions? i.e. what is the true out-of-sample R2? I think it's something like 25%. Do you agree? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated