Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 06 16:17:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias I think you're missing my point here, which is that a lot of political science theories about how and why voters behave as they do are vastly overstated (even largely untrue) because they're drawn from overfit models on small samples. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias If polling-based models considerably outperform fundamentals-based models in true out-of-sample prediction, that would tend to suggest that campaigns are idiosyncratic and that it's hard to develop reliable stylized facts about elections, which does seem like a valuable insight. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias This is so weird Brendan. It's a strawman to call my position a strawman! I'm saying that the theory that American elections are largely determined by economic conditions is false. Do you agree with that? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated