Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 06 15:53:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias If polling-based models considerably outperform fundamentals-based models in true out-of-sample prediction, that would tend to suggest that campaigns are idiosyncratic and that it's hard to develop reliable stylized facts about elections, which does seem like a valuable insight. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yes, I disagree that there's a difference between "modeling designed to improve forecast accuracy and modeling designed to explore causal theories". I think the best way to test whether causal theories are true is generally through true out-of-sample prediction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias I think you're missing my point here, which is that a lot of political science theories about how and why voters behave as they do are vastly overstated (even largely untrue) because they're drawn from overfit models on small samples. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated