Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 07 22:02:04 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It may be worth recalling that Biden was leading Trump by "only" 6 points when the George Floyd protests began. So, as the protests have faded from view a bit, perhaps not hugely surprising that the race has tightened by a point or two toward Biden +8. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is interesting. There's a fairly high correlation between pollster quality (as judged by our pollster ratings) and a poll's house effect, with higher-quality polls tending to show better numbers for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Here, for instance, are House Effects by 538 pollster rating (where 0 is their "A+" and 1 is an "D-") As you can se… https://t.co/y25eYSMb1b

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

During that time, Trump's approval for his handling of COVID has worsened. But, the economy has gotten a bit better. So, worsening approval on COVID, but the protests getting less coverage + some economic improvement may be enough to make the race slightly tighter. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated