Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The top states for removals per capita are Delaware, South Dakota, DC, Tennessee and North Dakota. Those are not battleground states the last time I checked. The suggestion that this is concentrated in swing states is wrong, full stop, and pretty irresponsible IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Indeed, if you go through the full list of removals, it's clear that there is *no pattern whatsoever* between where machines are removed and how red or blue a state is, or whether it's a swing state. Data from here: https://t.co/vsWowZ1ymX https://t.co/VIJnMNyMHX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd also note, I suppose, that if I were trying to slow down the mail to try to help my re-election, I would *not* disproportionately target swing states because that would be too easy to detect. Nonetheless, this list of states is NOT suggestive of targeting of swing states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, these highly track with populations; these states represent 36% of the US population and 38% of the sorting machines removed. So while the situation is quite concerning, I don't know that there is a basis for claims that swing states have been disproportionately targeted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen And/or 20-25% of the population having immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Dukakis led for several months in spring/summer after clinching his nomination. Wasn't just one poll. https://t.co/Eto3ccGjOI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some sense, I think the RNC is more important than the DNC, because Trump is trailing and it's one of his best remaining opportunities to turn the race around. If the race looks like its pre-convention baseline (Biden ~+8) a month from now, that starts to get tough for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These are really more the exceptions than the rules, though. Considerably more common are examples like 2016 when Clinton moved into a fairly big lead after the conventions but it faded after several weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The canonical examples of conventions seeming to produce *permanent* changes in the race are 1988 (when Bush pulled ahead of Dukakis after trailing most of the way and never looked back) and 1992 (when Clinton pulled ahead and never looked back, though the race tightened). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Have a bunch of thoughts on the convention for 'ya... in podcast form. https://t.co/5RRVifMicQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

DNC LIVEBLOG DAY 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 44444444 4 4 4 4 https://t.co/c4ak2T8gqs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: A preview of the final night of the #DNC2020 + a check in on the forecast model w/@NateSilver538 https://t.co/GK7gGVv72X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I know it's been a pretty crazy time for political news and have sort of been ignoring his race but I honestly don't understand why Pelosi would endorse Kennedy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @wiederkehra: HELLO BTW we're hiring @FiveThirtyEight for a politics reporter, podcast producer and social media producer. 💸 Maybe you'… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @OsitaNwanevu: Unclear if @NateSilver538 has calibrated his model for this https://t.co/1c86zFRi8f — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@julia_azari Yeah, I can't imagine how excruciating this is for anyone involved in a college campus at any level. But, too many plans seem to be contingent on expecting 18-year-olds to act like 42-year-olds. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I also think there should be some sort of additional compensation to say people aged 16-23, who are really taking the short end of the stick on COVID in terms of disruption to their educational and early-career experiences, despite having lower mortality risks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wish these kids were more conscientious, but I remember what I was like when I was 18. I don't think a school administrator throwing fire at a bunch of 18-year-olds for wanting to socialize in their first time on a college campus is likely to do much good, no. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini Well, that is a huge argument among epidemiologists right now. Some say as low as 10-20% and some say as high as 60-70%. And it depends on how long immunity lasts; areas that are protected now might not be in a year or two. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This was also an issue in Louisiana, for example, where the "first wave" was largely concentrated in Orleans & Jefferson Parishes, and the "second wave" was largely concentrated *outside* of those parishes. https://t.co/mBLTulGLgU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In Italy, for example, Lombardy (which was devastated in February/March) has had 72 cases/day so far in August, about the same as 74 cases/day in July. But the *rest* of Italy has had cases increase from 161/day in July to 342/day in August. https://t.co/3mA6RYQQON — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When people talk about "second waves" of COVID-19 within a country or a state, they need to look carefully at *where* within the country or state the cases are increasing. Often it's not the same places that were hit hard during the first wave. https://t.co/5hmnAZpgia — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: Muhlenberg is an A+ pollster, and Pennsylvania is one of the likeliest tipping-point states. A reminder this race may still… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris But I'm done with this. You seem more invested in winning Twitter arguments than in thinking clearly through a problem. I'm not going to engage with you any more. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris If Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to VBM, then they're going to be (i) disproportionately hurt by higher rejection rates but (ii) disproportionately helped by added convenience. Somehow you're assuming (i) but NOT (ii), which is ridiculous. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris But VBM didn't used to have partisan effects *at all*! Now it does! So the convenience *will* have partisan effects in a world where Democrats are vastly more likely to cast ballots by VBM. *That's* the flaw in your analysis. And it's a BIG flaw, to be honest. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I'm not sure, but I think what you're doing is conflating what a 2% *overall* increase in turnout would do vs. what we're really interested in, which is how much the added convenience of VBM results in a "likely voter" being more likely to follow through with voting under VBM. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris This just seems like a very confusing way to approach things. If VBM increases turnout by 2%—which, I would note, is *net* of rejected ballots since those estimates are generally based on *counted* ballots—it would seem like the convenience factor outweighs the rejection factor. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris "There's actually no evidence" is kind of a silly statement. Most of the evidence does point toward VBM increasing turnout. And since the effect of rejection rates is quite small (about a 1% increase in *net* rejection rates vs in-person) it could *easily* be the larger effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris This is frustrating since it misses the central argument of my thread yesterday. What I'm also saying is (c): since VBM is more convenient, a higher percentage of people who *intend* to vote (and are counted as "likely voters" in polls) will actually *wind up* voting if they VBM. — PolitiTweet.org