Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 21 15:14:35 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These are really more the exceptions than the rules, though. Considerably more common are examples like 2016 when Clinton moved into a fairly big lead after the conventions but it faded after several weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The canonical examples of conventions seeming to produce *permanent* changes in the race are 1988 (when Bush pulled ahead of Dukakis after trailing most of the way and never looked back) and 1992 (when Clinton pulled ahead and never looked back, though the race tightened). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some sense, I think the RNC is more important than the DNC, because Trump is trailing and it's one of his best remaining opportunities to turn the race around. If the race looks like its pre-convention baseline (Biden ~+8) a month from now, that starts to get tough for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated