Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 20 16:44:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris But VBM didn't used to have partisan effects *at all*! Now it does! So the convenience *will* have partisan effects in a world where Democrats are vastly more likely to cast ballots by VBM. *That's* the flaw in your analysis. And it's a BIG flaw, to be honest. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I'm not sure, but I think what you're doing is conflating what a 2% *overall* increase in turnout would do vs. what we're really interested in, which is how much the added convenience of VBM results in a "likely voter" being more likely to follow through with voting under VBM. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris If Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to VBM, then they're going to be (i) disproportionately hurt by higher rejection rates but (ii) disproportionately helped by added convenience. Somehow you're assuming (i) but NOT (ii), which is ridiculous. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated