Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 20 16:37:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I'm not sure, but I think what you're doing is conflating what a 2% *overall* increase in turnout would do vs. what we're really interested in, which is how much the added convenience of VBM results in a "likely voter" being more likely to follow through with voting under VBM. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris This just seems like a very confusing way to approach things. If VBM increases turnout by 2%—which, I would note, is *net* of rejected ballots since those estimates are generally based on *counted* ballots—it would seem like the convenience factor outweighs the rejection factor. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris But VBM didn't used to have partisan effects *at all*! Now it does! So the convenience *will* have partisan effects in a world where Democrats are vastly more likely to cast ballots by VBM. *That's* the flaw in your analysis. And it's a BIG flaw, to be honest. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated