Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For example, putting resources into Ohio, as this thread advocates, is possibly a bad move for Biden under ordinary circumstances. It's not a disaster; there's an outside chance that things get weird & Ohio is the tipping-point state. But it's less important than, say, Wisconsin. https://t.co/M0iNsdN3Az — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One reason it's important to *actually assess the probability* (in broad strokes, hard to be super precise) of Trump successfully stealing the election is that you're starting to see recommendations that might *otherwise hurt Biden's chances* in response to the perceived threat. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@atrupar "There's a plausible chance of some very bad outcomes" is a pretty good assessment of the situation IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ryxcommar LOL. Part of me wants to turn the model off but I think models and polling averages are useful as a benchmark for what the probabilities are absent interference. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK this is real bad tho — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Very much agree w/this thread. I think what's been annoying me is that it's time for clear-headed, fairly precise thinking about exactly what mechanisms Trump could use to steal the election and what the checks might be. There's been some of that—but also a lot of doom-porn. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @zackbeauchamp @rickhasen Yeah, a lot of COVID stuff definitely comes to mind here! Including that some things are more likely if people aren't on guard about them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, I don't think we're disagreeing at all. People should be more worried about 1%, 2%, 5%, 10%, 15% probabilities, etc. when the consequences are very bad, in this case basically the end of our democracy as we know it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@emptywheel @jeffhauser @rickhasen The whole point of my tweet was that people are starting to treat a plausible and very worrisome possibility as a near-certitude when that isn't warranted. Maybe you don't care about that distinction, but I think it's an important one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffhauser @rickhasen So what would you say the odds are that Trump will successfully steal the election, to the nearest 5%? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd say "Indiana's doing the full Sweden" except Sweden actually has a lot more restrictions than this. https://t.co/Ca1xS6wFrL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. We've spent more time estimating the relationship between congressional and presidential voting and will now assume a stronger correlation than before. This makes little difference to the topline but will allow us to explore more scenarios, e.g. the chance of a D trifecta. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These versions tend to be slightly worse for Collins, FWIW. We'll also be doing this for the presidential race, but it doesn't make much difference there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Couple small model notes: 1. In Maine, which has ranked choice voting, the model will now prefer to use the versions of the polls that show the results after second choices are accounted for. (Before, we had been averaging the pre- and post-reallocation versions together.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Notes: 1. The state vs. national stuff is probably just noise, don't overthink it 2. "Good for Trump" is relative in this context. Anything that makes it seem like Trump has a credible path to victory is good for him relative to other polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In a reversal of recent trends, state polls were good for Trump today but national polls have been good for Biden. https://t.co/QZaO0hcVW7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Furthermore, nothing would prove the #Resistance to be a #Fraud more than electing Democrats to all branches of government. #ResitanceFraudExposed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffhauser @rickhasen Notwithstanding the anonymous sourcing (perhaps unavoidable in this context but an on-the-record whistleblower would be highly valuable here), "discussing contingency plans" is not a particularly strong claim. https://t.co/iId98A0nZz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffhauser The reporting on the latter point is quite thin, and there are lots of reasons for the GOP to appoint a conservative justice as soon as they can irrespective of any plans to steal the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like the mood among some of the blue-checkmarks here has drifted a bit too liberally from "there's a plausible chance of some very bad outcomes" (true) to "Trump is fersure going to steal the election and you're all sheeple for thinking otherwise". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Younger Black voters are not as reliably Democratic as older ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Look for transparency in the data — even if you don’t go through it yourself. https://t.co/lYc1qZp2bR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, 2014 was a low-turnout midterm, so the percentage in a presidential election will be lower (perhaps 5-10%). But generally speaking, you do whatever you can to make sure that someone votes. A lot of people who are quite certain they'll vote don't wind up doing so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In 2014, about 16% of people that Pew deemed as likely voters — people who said they were nearly certain to vote and met various other fairly stringent criteria — did not wind up voting. https://t.co/zfWq7KLLvN https://t.co/Vh1XlsNs3P — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if Democrats were to discourage mail voting when they'd otherwise encourage it, out of fears that Trump will use it as a pretext to steal the election, that itself could make Trump's re-election more likely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Campaign operatives in both parties generally encourage voting by mail. The added convenience is thought to outweigh the small but nonzero additional risk that your ballot won't be counted, producing increased turnout among your voters overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. Mail voting generally increases turnout. 2. There's a pandemic. 3. This is victim-blaming wrapped up as a hot take. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Really enjoyed doing this podcast! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At the same time, the ABC/Post polls show an unusually wide registered vs. likely voter split, and most other polls this AM are pretty good for Biden. So not much indication the race has changed. But there is evidence that FL is a bright spot for Trump. https://t.co/de6e1opDuN https://t.co/Etf2r227Ev — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These come on the heels of previous ABC/Post polls showing strong results for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin. So we're at least getting a consistent story here: comparative strength for Biden in the Midwest, weakness in the Sunbelt. — PolitiTweet.org